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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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137 FXUS62 KFFC 290224 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1024 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is gradually diminishing, though some degree of isolated to widely scattered coverage can be expected to over the next several hours within the very moist environment. PoPs were adjusted slightly to reflect ongoing trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. RW && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Continued chaotic CU field across North and Central GA at this time. Embedded spotty showers will transitions to spotty thunderstorms this afternoon with daytime heating. Lift is currently provided by the slowly moving mid level trough which will continue to move out of the area through tomorrow (trending forcing downward on it`s way). Have also trended thunderstorms a little later than previous forecasts due to the persistent cloud coverage from this morning. Precipitation accumulations from this will be light, with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms. PWATs near 2.0" will mean efficient rain makers, however this morning`s sounding showed significant dry air above 600 mb. Thunderstorms will likely struggle to develop significant depth this afternoon due to dry air entrainment. Water loading in thunderstorms may be enough to develop gusty outflow which may help to initiate/develop further thunderstorms. Conditions tonight could see continued showers through most of the overnight hours. These will be spotty at best. Tomorrow morning will be similar to this morning with low clouds and humid conditions. Thunderstorms may develop once again by the late morning tomorrow, however reduced dynamic has see a downtrend in PoPs within CAMs. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will mean conditions are steamy. Heat indices will reach 100 to 104 for all but the higher elevations of North GA. SM && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Sunday into early Monday, a long-wave upr trough approaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will briefly amplify the upr ridge over the Southern Plains. As this occurs, energy along with a weak frontal boundary sagging south will slide across the Southeast region resulting in a fairly good chance for scattered to numerous showers/storms across the area. Drier air works into the area Monday and Tuesday as the upr high starts to stretch and build back to the east. After a brief reprieve from the humidity, look for it to return by the middle of the week - just in time for 4th of July. Heat Index values on Sunday could peak between 100-105F for many locations, with an area of 105+F possible across parts of east-central and southeast GA. Thursday (July 4th) and Friday, models showing the area on the east side of a broad upr high extending from west Texas to just off the South Carolina coast. More active weather (jet energy) appears to remain north of the area - across the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, however some of this could dip down across GA by the end of the week. At this point, isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection can be expected with warm temps (running 5-10F degrees above normal). DJN.83 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Lingering sct SHRA coverage will gradually diminish after 02Z. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the evening before lower cigs become more likely after 08-10Z. Initial MVFR cigs are expected by 07-09Z with IFR cigs likely by 10-12Z. Gradual improvement will occur after 14-16Z with VFR more likely after 16Z. Sct SHRA/TSRA are again expected with highest coverage likely after 18Z. Current SE winds of 5-10 kts will become light and more vrb after 02Z with SW direction shift expected by 09-13Z at speeds of 4-8 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on morning cigs. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 92 74 95 / 40 50 30 60 Atlanta 74 92 76 93 / 30 50 40 60 Blairsville 69 85 69 87 / 40 50 40 70 Cartersville 72 92 73 93 / 30 50 40 70 Columbus 75 94 75 94 / 40 50 30 70 Gainesville 73 89 75 93 / 30 50 40 60 Macon 73 95 74 95 / 40 50 30 60 Rome 74 92 74 94 / 30 50 30 70 Peachtree City 72 92 73 94 / 40 50 30 60 Vidalia 74 96 76 96 / 50 60 30 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....DJN.83 AVIATION...RW