Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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282 FXUS62 KFFC 102321 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 721 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Cold front continues to slowly traverse the CWA today. For those behind it, some relief from the humidity is filtering in - for those in front of it, it`s hot, it`s humid, and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, are possible. Deep trough is in place across the eastern CONUS with notable speed max over east central GA into SC. Right entrance region is in favorable location to provide some lift over east central Georgia. Day time heating has brought temperatures well into the upper 80s and lower 90s across this area with dewpoints that are in the lower 70s. Upper level trough has brought moderately cooler temps aloft, allowing lapse rate to increase to 7 C/km. Put together, this has created plenty of instability, with MLCAPE values surging to 2000+ J/kg. Effective bulk shear is substantial, approaching 40-50 kts in this area, though hodographs are relatively straight, keeping SRH values low overall. Hail looks to be the primary threat this afternoon for east central Georgia, though damaging winds will also be possible. Overall tornado threat is low, but won`t say zero, as a mesoscale accident with outflow interactions is rarely out of the realm of possibility. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for this area through this evening. This is the main show in the short term. These storms should move out of the CWA by this evening. The front is expected to continue creeping to the south. This should keep central GA dry tomorrow, but it may take a bit longer for the drier air to arrive. Highs tomorrow will be a bit split, with low 80s to the north, mid 80s across the metro, and upper 80s to 90s in central Georgia. Lows tonight and tomorrow will see a similar split as well, with the north seeing upper 50s, right at 60 in the metro, and mid to upper 60s in central Georgia. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 No major changes made to the extended forecast. Models continue to struggle with the long term outlook, so this discussion will remain overall broad to explore forecast challenges. A broad upper level ridge will make flow weak across the Southeast and into the Gulf of Mexico. Models are still attempting to resolve a weak gulf surface low with the potential to transport significant moisture northward. The track of the low itself will have major implications in the amount of moisture that is brought northward. Run to run model variability on max PWATs has ranged from around 2.0" to as high as 2.75". Again, dependent on the track and strength of the broad surface low. A secondary factor to consider is the potential development of the Bermuda High. Recent model runs have strengthened the high, both pushing the Gulf Low westward, but also driving northwest flow into GA. This effectively dry wedges much of GA and could have some major implications to moisture availability across a large portion of the CWA. Should the wedge like pattern develop, PoPs will be relegated to the far southern portions of the CWA if not outside the CWA all together. However, given the uncertainty in the Gulf Low development will likely maintain low PoPs much further into Central and North GA than models currently resolve. CAPE and shear values do not appear all too impressive for this time of the year so severe weather looks to be unlikely for now. Temperatures will generally increase as we move through the week, with highs climbing from the mid 80s up into the mid 90s. Given the potential moisture, this could be the steamiest conditions we`ve had so far this year. SM/01 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Isolated thunderstorms will be possible south and east of Macon through 06Z. Then VFR conditions (SKC-FEW AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) are expected through 06Z Wednesday. Winds will primarily be from the north (300-020 degrees) through 06Z Wednesday, though they could be calm for periods between 00Z and 12Z Tuesday. Wind speeds should be modest (3 to 9 kt) between 14Z Tuesday and 06Z Wednesday. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence in all elements of the ATL TAF. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 60 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 63 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 53 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 57 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 60 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 66 90 65 92 / 10 0 0 10 Rome 59 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 61 87 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 70 91 70 92 / 40 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Albright