383
FXUS62 KFFC 290600
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Continued chaotic CU field across North and Central GA at this time.
Embedded spotty showers will transitions to spotty thunderstorms
this afternoon with daytime heating. Lift is currently provided by
the slowly moving mid level trough which will continue to move out of
the area through tomorrow (trending forcing downward on it`s way).
Have also trended thunderstorms a little later than previous
forecasts due to the persistent cloud coverage from this morning.
Precipitation accumulations from this will be light, with locally
higher amounts from thunderstorms. PWATs near 2.0" will mean
efficient rain makers, however this morning`s sounding showed
significant dry air above 600 mb. Thunderstorms will likely struggle
to develop significant depth this afternoon due to dry air
entrainment. Water loading in thunderstorms may be enough to develop
gusty outflow which may help to initiate/develop further
thunderstorms.

Conditions tonight could see continued showers through most of the
overnight hours. These will be spotty at best. Tomorrow morning will
be similar to this morning with low clouds and humid conditions.
Thunderstorms may develop once again by the late morning tomorrow,
however reduced dynamic has see a downtrend in PoPs within CAMs.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoints in the mid 70s will mean conditions are steamy. Heat
indices will reach 100 to 104 for all but the higher elevations of
North GA.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Sunday into early Monday, a long-wave upr trough approaching the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will briefly amplify the upr ridge over the
Southern Plains. As this occurs, energy along with a weak frontal
boundary sagging south will slide across the Southeast region
resulting in a fairly good chance for scattered to numerous
showers/storms across the area.

Drier air works into the area Monday and Tuesday as the upr high
starts to stretch and build back to the east. After a brief reprieve
from the humidity, look for it to return by the middle of the week -
just in time for 4th of July. Heat Index values on Sunday could peak
between 100-105F for many locations, with an area of 105+F possible
across parts of east-central and southeast GA.

Thursday (July 4th) and Friday, models showing the area on the east
side of a broad upr high extending from west Texas to just off the
South Carolina coast. More active weather (jet energy) appears to
remain north of the area - across the Central Plains into the Ohio
Valley, however some of this could dip down across GA by the end of
the week. At this point, isolated to scattered diurnally-driven
convection can be expected with warm temps (running 5-10F degrees
above normal).

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Shower activity continues from the southern Atlanta metro south to
between CSG and MCN. These showers continue to move N into a less
favorable environment. Additionally, instability across the area
is decreasing. Will continue VCSH for ATL for the next several hours.
Low cigs are expected to develop once again toward daybreak (along
with patchy, mostly light fog near recent rain areas), with cig
heights of around 600-800 feet. Low clouds will lift and thin later
this morning, followed by afternoon shower and thunderstorm
activity. Light winds will become mostly SW during the day. Wind
speeds will remain light outside of heavier showers and storms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium for morning low cigs and vsbys along with start time of
afternoon tstms. High for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  72  92 /  30  60  40  30
Atlanta         76  93  75  93 /  40  60  30  20
Blairsville     69  87  67  87 /  40  70  20  20
Cartersville    73  93  71  93 /  40  70  20  10
Columbus        75  94  75  98 /  30  70  40  40
Gainesville     75  93  73  91 /  40  60  20  20
Macon           74  95  74  95 /  30  60  40  50
Rome            74  94  73  94 /  30  70  10  10
Peachtree City  73  94  72  94 /  30  60  30  20
Vidalia         76  96  76  93 /  30  70  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...SEC