085
FXUS63 KFGF 210455
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather impacts is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms developing a bit faster than expected
over west central MN with the warm air advection, so adjusted
POPs for that activity. Showers to the west with the main trough
seem on track, so little change there. Still expecting winds to
ramp up with the cold frontal passage.

UPDATE
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Showers remain sparse in the Devils Lake basin with a few
lightning strike now noted near Minot via NLDN. Still holding
onto the thought that things remain isolated with limited
impacts. Winds increase through the night with noticeable
increases by sunrise.

UPDATE
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Shower activity has materialized between Minot and Devils Lake
with these expected to translate east in the coming hours thus
have added scattered shower mention through 02z with further
changes being made as seen fit based on trends. Minimal
accumulations expected with any passing rain but maybe enough to
settle dusty roads and fields should rain reach the ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Synopsis...

As the surface high translates east overnight tonight, a
shortwave/cold front will begin to push through the area after
midnight. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, may cause
some minor impacts, however given very limited instability
impacts will be limited. Once showers exit as the front passes
through Saturday morning, winds will increase from the west.
Mixing potential is solid but winds aloft aren`t particularly
strong (850 winds around 40-50 knots at best), so wind advisory
potential appears fairly low at this time (20% chance). Having
said that, gusts to 40 mph can at least be expected tomorrow.

The remainder of the period will feature low probabilities for
hazardous weather as the upper flow pattern keeps the majority
of deeper moisture tagged to the Gulf. Heights based on
ensembles are pretty stable so expect at least some recovery
after cooler temperatures tomorrow but mostly seasonal
temperatures through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR Conditions through the period with chances for showers in
the DVL vicinity tonight. Thunderstorms in west central MN
should stay south and east of our airports. Winds predominately
southerly tonight turning W/NW tomorrow morning increasing to
15kts gusting 25-35kts between 15-23Z. Ceilings could drop as
low as 030 to 040 but confidence remains that MVFR will not be
reached.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR/TT
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...JR/TT