002
FXUS63 KFGF 260333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over
  the Devils Lake basin Thursday evening. Another low chance for
  severe weather to end the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Storms appear to be struggling given their less than ideal
environment and as such the low end svr hail threat appears
over. Remnant showers and isolated thunder will continue to
shift southeast towards Bemidji by 2AM. Elsewhere elevated
showers have begun to move into the souther Devils Lake Basin
with increasing coverage expected through the next few hours in
eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Generally light
amounts if any with a wedge of dry air near the surface
resulting in mostly virga per area mesonets.

UPDATE
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Continuing to see the chance for some isolated convection in the
northern Valley with rain moving southeast from Manitoba. SSCRAM
is currently showing a 5% risk for >1 inch hail should a
supercell form in this elevated CAPE environment with eff shear
of 40+ knots. Main threat time 7pm to 10pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...Synopsis...

Currently clouds are closing in on Eastern North Dakota and
northwestern Minnesota from the north and south. Synoptically
speaking, the main pattern is quasi-zonal, but numerous troughs and
ridges will be traversing the area in the forecast period. That
being said, there are multiple chances for precipitation the next 7
days. Temperatures will have the chance to slightly recover over the
next week, but will likely stay in the upper 70s.

...Tonight...

Tonight, an area of precipitation is expected to move south from
Canada into North Dakota. There could be some stray thunderstorms
with these showers, but not expecting anything strong or severe.
HREF guidance shows strong probability for elevated showers in our
area this evening into Wednesday morning.

...Thursday/Friday Rain Chances...

To end the week, a more organized trough will move into the northern
plains starting Thursday. The main severe threat is in central and
western North Dakota, but the Devils Lake Basin is under a marginal
risk for severe weather on Thursday (level 1 out of 5). The warm
sector is in central and western North Dakota during the afternoon
Thursday, but this area will slide east into eastern North Dakota
according to guidance. Hazards right now look to be quarter sized
hail and 60 MPH wind gusts in the Devils Lake Basin on Thursday.
However, as the forcing associated with the trough moves south and
east, we could see a secondary threat of severe weather on Friday.
This will be pretty conditional on if we can get some daytime
heating or if the clouds win over. Regardless, this system has the
potential to be a decent rainmaker for the area. WSUP probabilities
for >0.5 inches of QPF in 24 hours (ending Friday night) are 60 -
80% for areas along and north of HWY-2, and 40 - 60% south of HWY-2.
Once you increase probabilities to >1", the chances lower to 40 -
60% in the northern Devils Lake Basin to the international
border.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
... Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak showers moving through the northern valley which could
become a TVF and BJI problem later on especially if embedded
lightning persists. otherwise winds have calmed in the 320-350
range. Ceilings expected to drop to MVFR as elevated showers
(mostly virga) track east overnight with cigs as low as IFR
though only in more brief saturated pockets aloft. Sct afternoon
cumulus expected Wednesday climbing from 2kft to 5kft as mixing
deepens through the day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...TT