546
FXUS63 KFGF 231512
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1012 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms move into eastern North Dakota,
  especially northeast parts, after midnight Sunday night.
  Isolated severe storms possible.

- Monday will see additional severe storm chances all areas as a
  front moves in. All hazards possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The shortwave responsible for the showers and storms yesterday
evening (mainly over northeast North Dakota) is currently over
north central Minnesota, continuing to push to the east-
southeast. Most of the activity on the regional radar is around
or north of the Minnesota arrowhead, although there are a few
showers/storms just east of the Lake of the Woods. It is looking
less likely that any activity will affect Roseau or Lake of the
Woods counties this morning into the early afternoon. However,
we were only carrying an isolated mention of showers for a few
more hours, so will leave that alone for now. The rest of the
forecast looks fine, so no other changes will be made at this
point.

UPDATE
Issued at 727 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Patchy ground limited to northwest and west central MN at 12z.
It will burn off rapidly by 14z. Skies mainly sunny today with
high pressure moving in. Kept some low pops for a few showers in
Lake of the Woods area this morning but Dryden Ont radar shows
nothing in the immediate area, but still some slight chance
there.  Otherwise dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper low is moving from Manitoba into southern parts of NW
Ontario today. Lingering showers are possible around Lake of
the Woods mainly this morning with afternoon thunderstorms
associated with this upper low likely to be more Intl Falls and
east. High pressure will build in today giving us a good deal of
sunshine, though may have to deal with some early morning low
clouds and patchy fog.

...Late tonight...

Water vapor showing our next system moving into west central
B.C. from the Pacific and this upper low will track east thru
central Canadian prairies from Edmonton region this afternoon
to central Manitoba 18z Monday. Surface low with this feature
also will track well north of the International border. This
system is quite strong and there will be a 40kt 850 mb jet that
will develop this evening from eastern Montana north thru
central Saskatchewan just ahead of a surface trough. No
thunderstorms to our south with this feature so with growing
crops moisture advection sfc-850 mb will be impressive with dew
pts into the 60s into Saskatchewan and eastern Montana this
evening. T-storms likely to form near sfc trough Saskatoon area
to west of Regina SK late today and then move east-southeast and
continue to develop with aid of warm advection at 850 mb and
low level jet. Late evening/midnight period storms will move
into north central ND and then should spread thru parts of
eastern ND, especially northeast parts, pre dawn hours Monday
morning. Low level jet maintains 40-50 kts and warm advection is
strong at 850 mb thru 12z Monday into E ND. Therefore storms
will survive and could be near severe levels with hail and wind
threat. Storms will be elevated in nature, rooted 850 mb layer.
SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms into NE ND for this
reason late tonight.

...Monday...

Conditions Monday will favor severe storm development. Lots of
questions yet as morning convection will likely move thru and
may impact degree of warming in the aftn. Dew pts will reach the
low 70s in many areas though esp withing the RRV. Speed of
movement of surface trough is also an issue, with drier airmass
behind it. Latest HRRR indicates though a bit slower movement of
this trough/wind shift east than some global models suggest.
CAMs indicate sfc trough may still be located Langdon-Devils
Lake-Jamestown area. MU CAPES in the 3000-4500 j/kg will exit
21z Monday in E ND/RRV and models indicate cape will be eroding
with HRRR indicate CIN values after 21z rapidly lowering. So
thoughts would be some initiation along or just east of the sfc
trough Monday mid aftn and move into into MN in the evening.
Location of development as mentioned is keyed on position of sfc
trough/wind shift. 50-65 kt 0-6 km bulk shear more than enough
for supercell formation initially which likely will evolve into
more of a line into MN Monday evening.

...Late week...

The next in the endless series of upper waves moving thru
southern/central Canada will likely bring a round of
thunderstorms, potentially strong, late Thursday or Friday to
the area. Heavy rain threat too.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 727 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Outside of patchy ground fog lasting to 13-14z today, VFR today
with majority scattered clouds with some CU and mid cloud
patches. NW wind 8 to 15 kts today. Clear with light wind this
evening then increasing clouds into E ND after 06z Mon with risk
of a few storms into DVL region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle