Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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166 FXUS65 KFGZ 200523 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1023 PM MST Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Another dry day with seasonal temperatures is in store today. Increasing moisture will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through the early part of next week. Warming temperatures are expected from Thursday onward. && .UPDATE...Weather remains mostly quiet this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are still forecast to return tomorrow afternoon, initially across eastern Arizona and gradually spreading westward throughout the day. HREF guidance does suggest elevated CAPE values, so any storm development will likely be capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. This active pattern will persist through the next several days, so be sure to have a way to receive warnings. The previous discussion and forecast remains largely on track. Only minor updates were made. && .PREV DISCUSSION /418 PM MST/...One last dry day is on tap as a trough continue`s to hang over the western U.S., resulting in another breezy afternoon. Thursday will see that trough receding to the north as high pressure builds in. Accompanying the high will be moisture provided by Tropical Storm Alberto that is currently impacting southern Texas. That said, best lift and moisture availability remains primarily to the east tomorrow, with greatest thunderstorm coverage expected for areas in Apache and Navajo counties, generally north of I40. Development is possible elsewhere, but will be more isolated. Friday still looks to have the greatest coverage in showers and storms out of the forecast period as this is when PWATs will be at their highest, ranging from half an inch to easily over an inch. Still some question to intensity and coverage as it still doesn`t seem to be for the whole coverage area. There will certainly be areas that don`t receive any rainfall out of this. On the flip side, stronger thunderstorms will have the potential to bring more than an inch of rainfall, along with the usual threat of outflow winds, small hail, and of course lightning. New fires starts from lightning are still possible as strikes outside storms into dry areas will likely occur. High temperatures were adjusted down slightly from the straight NBM not just for Friday, but the weekend as well as cloud cover should help hold temperatures down slightly, especially over the higher terrain. As we move into the weekend, high pressure continues to build overhead with moisture remaining trapped underneath. It`ll be a slow, downward trend in the coverage of showers and storms. Guidance continues to hit on lift becoming more confined along the higher terrain by the early part of next week, resulting in lower POPs. Still, both GFS and Euro models show that PWATs remain elevated through next week, but just dropping slightly. While the moisture persists, increasing heights and decreasing afternoon clouds will result in increasing temperatures next week. Heat Risk starts to highlight many lower elevation locations Tuesday into Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION...Thursday 20/06Z through Friday 21/06Z...VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period, but periods of MVFR conditions are likely after 18Z due to SHRA/TSRA. Greatest chances for showers/thunderstorms will be along and east of a KPGA-KPAN line. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms, with S-SW winds 15-25 kts expected otherwise. OUTLOOK...Friday 21/06Z through Sunday 23/06Z...Look for continuous periods of SHRA/TSRA through the outlook period. VFR conditions will prevail outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier storms. Gusty outflow winds will be possible, but S-SW winds 10-20 kts are forecast for Friday before becoming lighter on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Chance for showers/thunderstorms increase east to west Thursday and Friday with the potential for gusty and erratic winds. Outside of storm driven outflows, look for south-southwest winds 15-25 mph. Minimum RH values ramping up from 15-30% on Thursday to 30-50% on Friday. Saturday through Monday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light and variable winds on Saturday and Sunday becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Monday, outside of gusty outflow winds. Minimum RH values will gradually decline, but still remain generally between 20-30%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...McCollum/Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff