Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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710 FXUS65 KFGZ 221004 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 304 AM MST Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy and hot conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure will be building into Arizona today. Meanwhile, the remnants of Alberto will continue to track westward. Together, this flow pattern will help ramp up moisture availability for northern Arizona. Compared to past days, elevated PWATS will shift from the Four Corners to more central Arizona/the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains. Those locations will see the greatest coverage in convection for this afternoon, but the elevated moisture availability will allow overall greater spread across the whole area. Out of the HREF members, the HRRR has had run to run consistency putting thunderstorm activity later in the day into Yavapai County, so POPs there were hand manipulated. While the severe threat will persist today, lower shear will mean a slightly lower chance. The flood threat remains the same though, as a mix of slow moving and training thunderstorms are expected and could cause isolated areas of flash flooding. The shift in concentrated coverage from the Four Corners to the Mogollon Rim will at least bring heavy rainfall to new areas that have seen little to no precipitation in several weeks. Daily storm chances will persist through the forecast period thanks to the high setting up and bringing in monsoonal moisture. Similar to today, limited shear will result in a more pulse storm threat, though lingering, training thunderstorms will provide a flash flood threat. Late next week POPs due become very limited and confined to the far east as a passing trough in the NW U.S. will shift our high east. At this time, ensemble guidance does build the high back in late in the weekend/early the following weekend. As long as that happens, monsoonal flow will return and increase rain chances once again. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/06Z through Sunday 23/06Z...Mainly VFR expected overnight, with local MVFR conditions in isolated to scattered -TSRA, most numerous across NE AZ. Thunderstorms will develop again after 17Z on Saturday, with scattered to numerous storms along and south of a line from KGCN-KRQE. Expect MVFR conditions and local IFR conditions in storms. Winds will be light on Saturday, but gusty around thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected, with SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day, most numerous over the higher terrain. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph today, becoming more southwest to west on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. A gradual warming trend will bring above normal temperatures by Tuesday. Light southwest to west winds around 10-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff