294
FXUS65 KFGZ 250851
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
151 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity will
slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shower and storm activity has decreased across the
area this morning, though some lingering instability combined with
leftover boundaries are allowing a few isolated showers and storms
to persist. PWATs remain elevated and with lots of clearing
occurring overnight, today should see yet another round of
showers and storms being widely scattered across northern Arizona.
A strong cluster of storms pushed their way north into southern
Arizona this morning. This cluster should push additional moisture
north, further aiding in development for this afternoon. While
precip chances are spread out across most of northern Arizona,
CAMs are hitting on lots of activity across the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains late this morning/early this afternoon. That
activity is then favored to move south off the Rim into the lower
elevations, including into Yavapai County. Once again guidance
seem too low for parts of Yavapai County, so POPs there were
manually adjusted to try and capture what should be widespread
activity this afternoon.

The remainder of the forecast continues to remain unchanged.
Wednesday into Friday shower and storm chances will gradually
decrease and shift east as the high that`s allowed ample moisture
to move into the area will be displaced east as a trough crosses
the northern U.S. Accompanying the drop in rain chances will be an
increase in winds for Thursday into the coming weekend out of the
southwest.

By the weekend, any POPs will mainly be confined to the White
Mountains as breezy afternoon conditions persist as a trough
moves east. As the trough departs, high pressure will start to
build back west. As this occurs, rain chances should start to
also build back west...though ensemble guidance doesn`t look as
strong with this moisture push like what we have been experiencing
recently, so rain chances will be more limited as we go into next
week and the monsoon "returns".

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 25/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds.
Expect SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA from 18Z Tue until 03Z Wed, with
localized MVFR/IFR conditions.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. SCT
to NMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA 19Z-03Z Wed and Thurs will
produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of
storms and storm outflow. Storm activity shifts primarily east of
the I-17 corridor by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day. Gusty erratic outflow winds, small hail, and
heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. West/southwest winds 5-
15 mph along with near-normal temperatures. Minimum afternoon RH 20-
40 percent, with good overnight recoveries.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered showers and storms continue on
Thursday, with isolated coverage expected for Friday and Saturday.
Southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon, with seasonable temperatures
and minimum RH 15-30%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff