326
FXUS65 KFGZ 231718
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1018 AM MST Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms well into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Only a few isolated showers remain towards the White
Mountains this morning, but another active day is expected across
much of northern Arizona. Although it`s tricky to pin-point
exactly where storms are anticipated to form this
afternoon/evening, the recent U of A WRF run and the SPC HREF
guidance suggests Coconino County being a hot spot for stronger
storms. Showers and thunderstorm will not be limited to this area,
as we do anticipate storm development over much of
central/northern Arizona throughout the day. PWATs are looking to
range from 1-1.5 inches today, so periods of heavy rainfall is
likely. With the continued daily moisture, certain areas have
become more saturated, which could lead to quicker ponding/flowing
water. If you come across a flooded roadway, remember: Turn
around, don`t drown!

The previous forecast remains largely on track, so no updates
were made at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...High levels of moisture, steep lapse rates, and
orographic lift are helping keep persistent showers ongoing
across parts of Gila County into the White Mountains early this
morning. Expect this activity to gradually decrease and become
more isolated over the coming hours.

Today will feature another round of isolated to scattered
monsoonal storms. Compared to previous days, today`s activity will
be spread-out with no areas expected to have notably higher
concentrations than others. Limited shear and storm motion
combined with moderate instability and high PWATS means that
overall severe threat will once again be low today, but there is a
threat for flash flooding, especially under persistent cells or
areas where training develops.

The forecast the remainder of the period remains unchanged.
Monsoonal moisture input will allow for daily shower and
thunderstorm chances until Friday. By the end of the week, a
passing trough will shift high pressure over the region east and
cutting off moisture input. Thus conditions will become drier
going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...VFR conditions
will mostly prevail, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier
SHRA/TSRA. Chances for showers/storms will be greatest between
18Z-06Z with clearing expected overnight. Gusty/erratic winds will
be likely near storms, but otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-10
kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...SHRA/TSRA
chances will continue each afternoon/evening through the outlook
period. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any given
storm. Outside of outflow winds, expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts.
Overnight winds will become light and variable. VFR conditions
will prevail, minus brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier
storms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Scattered to widespread afternoon
showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday. Wetting rains are
likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Outside of storms, expect southerly winds 10-15 mph, becoming more
westerly on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim
and the White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely with any storms,
as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Southwest to west winds
around 10-15 mph each afternoon, increasing to 15-20 mph on
Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/RKR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff