Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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894 FXUS65 KFGZ 240400 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 900 PM MST Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over eastern Arizona towards the weekend. && .UPDATE...Current radar shows a pair of storms producing heavy rainfall in southern Yavapai County near Congress. Elsewhere, convective activity is diminishing. High resolution model guidance suggests storm activity will continue to decline this evening, with quiet conditions overnight. For tomorrow, deep monsoon moisture will remain in place, with precipitable water generally ranging from 0.8 to 1.6 inches. High resolution model guidance shows slightly higher instability as compared to today, with mean CAPE values ranging from around 300 J/kg near the Four Corners to around 1000 J/kg in Yavapai County south of the Mogollon Rim. Similar to today, storms will be slow moving as the 0-6 km wind is forecast to be 5 knots or less at most places. All of this to say, the primary hazard on Monday will continue to be flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. && .PREV DISCUSSION /453 PM MST/...It`s been a sluggish start to showers and storms popping up this afternoon, but we are starting to see isolated activity. Recent runs of the U of A WRF show more storm development after 2 PM and continuing into the evening hours, which is consistent with a few other Hi-Res models. There also still seems to be a focus over Coconino County, especially along the Kaibab Plateau. The first lightning strikes of the day were near Jacob Lake, but it`s truly a shot in the dark to try and pin-point exactly where we are going to see storm coverage for the rest of the afternoon/evening. This monsoon pattern will continue through much of the week, with a more typical-monsoon flow (high pressure over the Four Corners) shaping up by mid- week. As a result, expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday. As we move towards the end of the week/weekend, the previously mentioned monsoon pattern will gradually weaken to a less pronounced west/southwest flow due to a passing trough. This will limit showers/thunderstorms to eastern Arizona, and a few areas across the Mogollon Rim. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...VFR conditions will mostly prevail, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Chances for showers/storms will be greatest until around 06Z with clearing expected overnight...and then again 18Z to 00Z Monday. Gusty/erratic winds will be likely near storms, but otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/00Z through Thursday 27/00Z...SHRA/TSRA chances will continue each afternoon/evening through the outlook period. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any given storm. Outside of outflow winds, expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts. Overnight winds will become light and variable. VFR conditions will prevail, minus brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours tonight, and are expected to return both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible with any storm. Outside of storm driven winds, look for southwest winds 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values ranging between 25-45% daily. Wednesday through Friday...Look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, but chances will gradually decrease each afternoon. Outside of gusty outflow winds, expect west-southwest winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH values generally between 25-45%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/Konieczny AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff