816
FXUS65 KFGZ 200444
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
944 PM MST Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Another dry day with seasonal temperatures is in store
today. Increasing moisture will bring daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms from Thursday through the early part of next
week. Warming temperatures are expected from Thursday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...Weather remains mostly quiet this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are still forecast to return tomorrow afternoon,
initially across eastern Arizona and gradually spreading
westward throughout the day. HREF guidance does suggest elevated
CAPE values, so any storm development will likely be capable of
producing hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. This active
pattern will persist through the next several days, so be sure to
have a way to receive warnings. The previous discussion and
forecast remains largely on track. Only minor updates were made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /418 PM MST/...One last dry day is on tap as a trough continue`s to
hang over the western U.S., resulting in another breezy afternoon.

Thursday will see that trough receding to the north as high
pressure builds in. Accompanying the high will be moisture
provided by Tropical Storm Alberto that is currently impacting
southern Texas. That said, best lift and moisture availability
remains primarily to the east tomorrow, with greatest
thunderstorm coverage expected for areas in Apache and Navajo
counties, generally north of I40. Development is possible
elsewhere, but will be more isolated.

Friday still looks to have the greatest coverage in showers and
storms out of the forecast period as this is when PWATs will be at
their highest, ranging from half an inch to easily over an inch.
Still some question to intensity and coverage as it still doesn`t
seem to be for the whole coverage area. There will certainly be
areas that don`t receive any rainfall out of this. On the flip
side, stronger thunderstorms will have the potential to bring more
than an inch of rainfall, along with the usual threat of outflow
winds, small hail, and of course lightning. New fires starts from
lightning are still possible as strikes outside storms into dry
areas will likely occur. High temperatures were adjusted down
slightly from the straight NBM not just for Friday, but the
weekend as well as cloud cover should help hold temperatures down
slightly, especially over the higher terrain.

As we move into the weekend, high pressure continues to build
overhead with moisture remaining trapped underneath. It`ll be a
slow, downward trend in the coverage of showers and storms.
Guidance continues to hit on lift becoming more confined along the
higher terrain by the early part of next week, resulting in lower
POPs. Still, both GFS and Euro models show that PWATs remain
elevated through next week, but just dropping slightly. While the
moisture persists, increasing heights and decreasing afternoon
clouds will result in increasing temperatures next week. Heat Risk
starts to highlight many lower elevation locations Tuesday into
Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 20/00Z through Friday 21/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue through much of the TAF period before periods of
MVFR ceilings/visibilities become possible with increase
SHRA/TSRA chances. Look for showers/thunderstorms to expand
eastward after 18Z, with best chances for activity along and east
of a KPGA-KPAN line. Outside of gusty/erratic winds from storms,
expect SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near 30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 21/00Z through Sunday 23/00Z...Chances for
SHRA/TSRA will continue through the outlook period. As a result,
expect periods of MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic outflow winds.
Outside of showers/storms, VFR conditions will prevail and winds
will generally be S-SW 15-25 kts on Friday becoming light and
variable on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Chance for
showers/thunderstorms increase east to west Thursday and Friday with
the potential for gusty and erratic winds. Outside of storm driven
outflows, look for south-southwest winds 15-25 mph. Minimum RH
values ramping up from 15-30% on Thursday to 30-50% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Light and variable winds on Saturday and Sunday
becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Monday, outside of
gusty outflow winds. Minimum RH values will gradually decline, but
still remain generally between 20-30%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum/Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff