Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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472 FXUS65 KFGZ 221130 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 430 AM MST Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy and hot conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure will be building into Arizona today. Meanwhile, the remnants of Alberto will continue to track westward. Together, this flow pattern will help ramp up moisture availability for northern Arizona. Compared to past days, elevated PWATS will shift from the Four Corners to more central Arizona/the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains. Those locations will see the greatest coverage in convection for this afternoon, but the elevated moisture availability will allow overall greater spread across the whole area. Out of the HREF members, the HRRR has had run to run consistency putting thunderstorm activity later in the day into Yavapai County, so POPs there were hand manipulated. While the severe threat will persist today, lower shear will mean a slightly lower chance. The flood threat remains the same though, as a mix of slow moving and training thunderstorms are expected and could cause isolated areas of flash flooding. The shift in concentrated coverage from the Four Corners to the Mogollon Rim will at least bring heavy rainfall to new areas that have seen little to no precipitation in several weeks. Daily storm chances will persist through the forecast period thanks to the high setting up and bringing in monsoonal moisture. Similar to today, limited shear will result in a more pulse storm threat, though lingering, training thunderstorms will provide a flash flood threat. Late next week POPs due become very limited and confined to the far east as a passing trough in the NW U.S. will shift our high east. At this time, ensemble guidance does build the high back in late in the weekend/early the following weekend. As long as that happens, monsoonal flow will return and increase rain chances once again. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/12Z through Sunday 23/12Z...Mainly VFR expected. MVFR possible in SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z, mainly along and south of KRQE-KFLG-KPRC line with ISO SHRA through 06Z/Sun. S-SW winds 5-15 kts becoming light and variable after 03Z. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Mainly VFR expected. Expect SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph today, becoming more southwest to west on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. A gradual warming trend will bring above normal temperatures by Tuesday. Light southwest to west winds around 10-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff