856
FXUS65 KFGZ 251948
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1248 PM MST Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably
warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Thursday...A weak shortwave moves northward
through Arizona today, brining a return of southerly flow. Moisture
does increase some through the day, but with high pressure still
largely in control, the only noticeable change will be some increase
cloud cover over the higher terrain this afternoon. Similar story
again on Thursday, though just a touch more moisture. Though this
should largely be a nominal increase as subsidence aloft will
suppress any precipitation chances.

Afternoon highs each day will be nearly 10 degrees F above normal
for this time of year. Winds should be fairly light each day with
occasional afternoon breezes. Some gusty northeast winds overnight
will remain possible, mainly in the usual areas immediately
downwind of southwest-facing terrain.

Friday through Tuesday...High pressure continue sot wobble around
the southwest, eventually centering over Arizona and becoming
amplified. As heights become maximized, afternoon highs sore to
nearly 15 degrees F above normal for Friday and into the weekend.
The lowest elevations of the region (mainly near Black Canyon City)
will be flirting with near 110 deg F both Friday and Saturday.

By the start of next week, the ridge axis becomes elongated across
the west. Temperatures begin to cool slightly as it becomes degraded
some, but still remain well above normal. Continued dry conditions
are also expected, with only a handful out of 100 ensemble members
between the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE showing any chance for precipitation
through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 25/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...Widespread
VFR conditions persist through the period with FEW cumulus clouds
along the high terrain. Expect southerly winds, 10-20 kts, this
afternoon, becoming variable under 10 kts after 01Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 26/18Z through Saturday 28/18Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Winds will
remain light, 5-15 kts, from the east to southwest each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...The dry and warm weather
pattern continues across Arizona to end the week. Expect near
record, daytime temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above average each
day with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20%. Light winds, 5 to 15 mph,
are forecast throughout the period, mainly from the south or east.

Saturday through Monday...No precipitation is forecast through
Monday with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20% each day. High
temperatures remain significantly above average for this time of
year with cool temperatures at night. Light southwest winds return
for this weekend, becoming northeast on Monday. For any prescribed
burns, plan on poor smoke ventilation conditions after 7 pm MST each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff