Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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724 FXUS65 KFGZ 231543 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 843 AM MST Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms well into next week. && .UPDATE...Only a few isolated showers remain towards the White Mountains this morning, but another active day is expected across much of northern Arizona. Although it`s tricky to pin-point exactly where storms are anticipated to form this afternoon/evening, the recent U of A WRF run and the SPC HREF guidance suggests Coconino County being a hot spot for stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorm will not be limited to this area, as we do anticipate storm development over much of central/northern Arizona throughout the day. PWATs are looking to range from 1-1.5 inches today, so periods of heavy rainfall is likely. With the continued daily moisture, certain areas have become more saturated, which could lead to quicker ponding/flowing water. If you come across a flooded roadway, remember: Turn around, don`t drown! The previous forecast remains largely on track, so no updates were made at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...High levels of moisture, steep lapse rates, and orographic lift are helping keep persistent showers ongoing across parts of Gila County into the White Mountains early this morning. Expect this activity to gradually decrease and become more isolated over the coming hours. Today will feature another round of isolated to scattered monsoonal storms. Compared to previous days, today`s activity will be spread-out with no areas expected to have notably higher concentrations than others. Limited shear and storm motion combined with moderate instability and high PWATS means that overall severe threat will once again be low today, but there is a threat for flash flooding, especially under persistent cells or areas where training develops. The forecast the remainder of the period remains unchanged. Monsoonal moisture input will allow for daily shower and thunderstorm chances until Friday. By the end of the week, a passing trough will shift high pressure over the region east and cutting off moisture input. Thus conditions will become drier going into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/12Z through Monday 24/12Z...Mainly VFR expected. MVFR or lower in widespread SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z. S-SW winds 5-10 kts becoming light and variable after 03Z. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/12Z through Wednesday 26/12Z...Mainly VFR expected. Expect MVFR in SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. S-SW winds 5-10 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Scattered to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Outside of storms, expect southerly winds 10-15 mph, becoming more westerly on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Southwest to west winds around 10-15 mph each afternoon, increasing to 15-20 mph on Thursday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/RKR AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff