Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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246 FXUS65 KFGZ 112256 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 356 PM MST Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures for the next couple of days, with a brief cooling trend on Friday from the onset of a low- pressure system. Slight chances for showers/thunderstorms returns to the forecast by Thursday and continues through Friday. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return for the weekend/into next week. && .DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures this week, with daytime highs averaging 5-10 degrees above normal. As a result of the increasing temperatures, the Excessive Heat Warning for many areas below 4000` remains valid for Wednesday 10 AM MST through Thursday 8 PM MST. It`s highly encouraged to avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day (~10AM-8PM) and stay hydrated. Relief from the heat is likely in store for much of northern Arizona late Thursday through Friday as a low pressure system moves inland from off the southern California Coast. There is not an abundant amount of moisture associated with this disturbance, but there looks to be enough forcing to get a few isolated to scattered showers going. The U of A WRF model shows precipitation chances increase west to east across our CWA as early as Thursday morning and lasting through Friday. Which brings up the potential for temperatures to not get as warm on Thursday, but that will all depend on exact timing/moisture availability/and location of precipitation. If temperatures do not have the opportunity to reach the highs we are projecting, the Excessive Heat Warning could be expired early. Outside of precipitation associated with the incoming low, increased winds are also expected. Although winds are below any product threshold/criteria, there will be continued elevated fire weather concerns. Ideally, relative humidities will increase enough with the slight up-tick in moisture, but fuels are fairly dry across northern Arizona and any storm with enough instability could produce lightning - potentially leading to a natural fire start. Warm temperatures will quickly return over the weekend, but a cooler/zonal looks to return over much of the Southwest by Monday. This will keep daytime highs near normal for this time of year, and winds on the breezy side. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 12/00Z through Thursday 13/00Z...VFR conditions persisting. W/SW winds 5-10kts gusting to 20 kts will diminish after 02Z, becoming light and variable overnight. W/SW winds returning after 16Z Wednesday, but roughly 5 kts stronger than today. OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/00Z through Saturday 15/00Z...VFR conditions, outside of brief periods of MVFR in -SHRA/-TSRA after 00Z Friday, but could be earlier Thursday depending on how models continue to trend with moisture. Gusty, erratic winds possible near thunderstorms. Winds west/southwest 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and hot weather, with afternoon RH values from 5-15%. West/southwest wind gusts 15-25 mph on Wednesday, increasing to 20-30 mph on Thursday. Chances (10- 30%) for isolated, showers and thunderstorms begin late Thursday. Friday through Sunday...On Friday, a passing low pressure system will bring slightly cooler and more cloudy weather, but afternoon humidity will remain in the 8-16% range at most places. Chances (20- 50%) for showers, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, are forecast primarily along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds will shift to the west/northwest, expect in the vicinity of storms where erratic outflow winds are possible. Dry and warmer weather, along with breezy southwest winds return Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff