Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
646 FXUS65 KFGZ 171640 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 940 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest winds to create critical fire weather today for much of northern Arizona. Temperatures will trend closer to normal through Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of thunderstorms arrives Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE...No forecast updates needed this AM. Winds are once again picking up and are expected to be stronger today than they were yesterday. && .PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...An unseasonably cold trough moving through the northwestern U.S. today will result in a dry and windy day across Arizona. Wind speeds will be slightly higher than yesterday with afternoon gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph for most areas. When combined with low humidity and critically dry fuels, these winds will generate critical fire weather, and Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for a good portion of northern Arizona through this evening. Lower than average heights for this time of year will yield daytime temperatures a couple of degrees below normal. The parent trough heads eastward tonight, but a longwave trough settles in across much of the western U.S. through at least the middle of this week. Subsequently, the dry and breezy weather pattern will persist through the week. Wind speeds will be lighter the remainder of the week but afternoons will still see gusts up to 25-30 mph. Higher pressure begins to take hold later this week as it gradually builds westward across the southern U.S. Expect warming temperatures from Thursday into the weekend. Along with the ridge building into the region, ensemble guidance from both the GEFS and ENS continue to support an increase in monsoonal moisture beginning Thursday and spreading westward across the state. The moisture looks mainly high-based, bringing a threat for high-based showers and thunderstorms. Chances return Thursday across eastern Arizona, and spread west from Friday through early next week. As is typical for early in the monsoon pattern, a dry boundary layer will limit the potential for measurable rainfall, with lightning and gusty winds being the bigger threats. With the warming trend through the week, heat risk in the lower elevations starts to nudge toward critical levels by late next weekend - something we will keep an eye on. && .AVIATION...Monday 17/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR conditions persisting through the period. Winds S/SW 15-25 kts, gusting 30-40 kts, becoming W/SW 5-15 kts after 04Z. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/18Z through Thursday 20/18Z...VFR conditions continue through the period. Daytime winds SW 10-15 kts on Tuesday, becoming S for Wednesday/Thursday. Generally light and variable winds expected overnight. Isolated -SHRA/TS develops near the AZ/NM state ling Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Widespread critical fire weather along and north of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-45 mph today, subsiding to 10-15 mph for Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH values 5-15% today, then rising to 10-15% on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday, before chances for showers and dry thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, warming temperatures and breezy south winds with afternoon gusts 20-30 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006-007-009>016-039-040. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR/MCT AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff