Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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660 FXUS65 KFGZ 242336 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 436 PM MST Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday or Thursday. Activity will slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Another active day is ongoing, most storms have been fleeting and run out as the outflow passes. The most active area is currently in northern Gila County, but a well-organized outflow may generate new activity in eastern and central Yavapai County before the day is done. Primary threats remain heavy rain and small hail, lack of shear and notable storm motion should limit larger hail potential. Similar conditions persist Tuesday and into Wednesday. before the mid-levels dry toward the end of the week. This will likely limit storms to our eastern zones Thursday through Saturday. This will be short-lived, moisture will creep back westward late in the weekend and early next week, as the ridge quickly reestablishes a favorable position. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 25/00Z through Wednesday 26/00Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. Until 04Z, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR. ISOLD to SCT SHRA and -TSRA overnight. Storms redeveloping on Tuesday after 19Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/00Z through Friday 28/00Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA 19Z-03Z Wed and Thurs will produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm activity shifts primarily east of the I-17 corridor by Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. Winds will mainly be driven by outflows. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent, with good overnight recoveries. Thursday through Saturday...Most of the central and western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff