765
FXUS65 KFGZ 252200
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity then slowly
decreases and becomes more focused over eastern Arizona by the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The remnants of a well-defined MCV is lurking in the
Phoenix area this afternoon, with plenty of action in our CWA. This
feature is progged to move into Yavapai County this evening, on a
northwesterly track. This could potentially prolong convection later
into the night. These features don`t always pan out, especially if
moving into a worked-over airmass, but we will need to keep an eye
on it.

Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward
on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our
north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you
may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit.

From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much
drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary
will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity
to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return
heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we
have seen for the last week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 25/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z, SCT to
NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR.
Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/18Z through Friday 28/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z Wednesday and
Thursday, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will still produce
localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and
storm outflow. Storm activity primarily along and east of the I-17
corridor Thursday, shifting even farther east by Friday. Light winds
becoming SW10-20g25kts during the daylight hours for Thursday/Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall,
hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On Thursday, the emphasis
shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim northeast and eastward. Winds
on Wednesday will mainly be driven by outflows. By Thursday, expect
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, especially
for the central and western zones.

Friday through Sunday...Most of the central and western zones become
drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the
eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff