615
FXUS65 KFGZ 250538
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1038 PM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday or Thursday. Activity
will slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection is winding down this evening, but pockets
of instability exist that will keep a few thunderstorms developing
for the next hour or so, especially over Yavapai County. Without
any external support, expect only a few isolated showers
overnight. Another round of convection is expected on Tuesday,
which should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to much of northern Arizona. Current forecast is in good shape -
a few minor updates were made to catch the evolution of the
evening convection.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 25/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds.
Expect SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA from 18Z Tue until 03Z Wed, with
localized MVFR/IFR conditions.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. SCT
to NMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA 19Z-03Z Wed and Thurs will
produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of
storms and storm outflow. Storm activity shifts primarily east of
the I-17 corridor by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to continue each day. Light winds will
prevail, with stronger winds driven by thunderstorm outflows.
Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning,
and gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent,
with good overnight recoveries.

Thursday through Saturday...Most of the central and western zones
become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue
for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day.
Minimum RH will range from 25-35% on Thursday and Friday, but
decrease to 15-25% by Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/Peterson
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff