489
FXUS65 KFGZ 140910
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
210 AM MST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona today will
bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
northeastern Arizona. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return
this weekend, with a slight cooling trend early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure is centered over the lower
Colorado River Valley early this morning. Out ahead of the low,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been moving
through Navajo and Apache counties overnight. Radar estimates and
a couple of observations show only light rain mainly less than
0.10" has fallen in these areas. Closer to the core of the low, a
few more robust convective cells have developed over Yavapai
county. The low will gradually track northeastward across the
state today, continuing to bring isolated to scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms. Given the ongoing activity and support of
some CAPE in the hi-resolution models, thunder will be possible
with any convective development this morning and afternoon. The
best coverage of convective activity is expected to be across
northeastern Arizona through the day. Light rainfall is expected
with only a lucky few actually seeing measurable amounts.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday for much of the
area, except eastern Arizona where appreciable cloud cover and
shower activity will keep them about 5 degrees cooler.

The low heads east by this evening which will quickly diminish any
shower chances and lead to clearing skies. A drier and breezy
weather pattern takes hold over the weekend and into next week as
persisting troughing develops over the northwestern U.S. After a
quick warm up on Saturday, anomalously low heights for this time
of year will keep temperatures near to below average through the
middle of next week. The bad news is that the trough will lead to
increasing wind speeds from Saturday into early next week, which
could lead to some areas of critical fire weather by Sunday/Monday.

By the middle of next week, subtropical high pressure begins to
build back into the region with rising heights leading to warming
temperatures. In addition, models are indicating some moisture
from New Mexico might spread westward into Arizona bringing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the White
Mountains by Thursday, spreading westward across much of the area
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 14/06Z through Saturday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Localized MVFR conditions possible in ISO SHRA. Light
and variable winds, becoming SW-W 5-15 kts after 18Z. Gusty/erratic
winds will be possible near stronger showers, with greater
chances for TSRA mainly east of a KPGA-KINW-KSOW line through 12Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 15/06Z through Monday 17/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with SW winds. Winds become gusty on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Scattered light rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms this morning will continue throughout the
day, keeping temperatures mild. Rain chances shift eastward, mainly
impacting northeast Arizona from the Little Colorado River Valley
northward. Gusty, erratic winds are expected near storms with dry
lightning possible. Away from storms, W-NW winds 5-15 mph today,
increasing out of the SW at 10-20 mph Saturday. Hot, dry conditions
return Saturday with afternoon RH values of 5-15%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler, but still very dry with
minimum RH values in the single digits to mid-teens each afternoon.
Breezy SW winds over the weekend strengthen, becoming windy by
Monday, creating near-critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff