Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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396 FXUS63 KFSD 220326 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1026 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minimal rain chances into the overnight, with any risk focused towards Highway 20. - With the passage of a cold front today, temperatures trend downward to below normal levels tomorrow and Monday. - Temperatures trend back to normal and above normal levels for next week, with limited chances for precipitation through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Surface observations show the cold front moving out of our far eastern counties, with temperature observations showing cold air advection starting to overcome radiational heating out in central South Dakota as temperatures are now beginning to fall. Breezy north- northwest winds continue to gust into the 20s east of I-29 and into the 30s west of I-29. Satellite and radar show an area of scattered showers trying to move into far SE South Dakota and NE Nebraska along some weak frontogenesis in the mid-levels, though dry air in the lower levels have prevented the vast majority from reaching the surface. A secondary band of frontogenesis is lagging behind slightly along a line from Armour to Madison to Marshall, which has been able to develop an isolated thunderstorm sporadically. Instability has waned significantly behind the front, especially for non-surface based thunderstorms, and with the cold front now off to our east and south, not expecting any additional severe thunderstorms in our area today, though a few scattered thunderstorms are possible. For tonight a surface high pressure will begin to slide into the area, continuing to overspread the area with cold air advection resulting in overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50, with coldest readings north of I-90. This will keep winds on the semi-breezy side, though much weaker than they have been today already. As a cut- off upper level low begins to interact with the trough axis already sliding across the area, we remain north of the fronts that will be the focus for rainfall. So, outside of our far southern area which may see sporadic light rain overnight into the morning hours on Sunday, most of the area will remain dry with mostly cloudy skies for the start of Sunday. The rest of the day will be largely uneventful weather wise as the surface high pressure remains parked over the area, with daytime highs largely in the mid to upper 60s. Not impossible for some areas to reach 70 degrees, with ensembles keeping the probabilities for 70 or greater temperatures remaining below 10%, largely driven by the warm-biased GFS. Overnight temperatures into Monday dip down into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Southerly return flow sets up again on Monday as the surface high slides off to our east, and a front begins to move towards the area from the west as the parent low pressure slides eastwards in southern Canada. This will begin our upward trend for temperatures, though we`ll only be marginally warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s. Behind an upper level trough and dry surface front moving through on Tuesday, upper level heights rise into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds back into the central/northern plains. Ensemble situational awareness tables show that this ridge will bring temperatures and geopotential heights at or above the 99th percentile of climatology for this time of year for layers above 700mb, while 850mb temperatures don`t quite reach the 90th percentile. So, expect warmer than normal temperatures up into the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday into Friday. Dry conditions are expected, with chances for a tenth of an inch of rain remaining below 10% each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions will continue into Sunday as a persistent north wind continues. Occasional gusts increase during the daytime hours of Sunday and there may be some risk of a diurnal CU field in the afternoon. By sunset, skies should clear and winds will turn light and variable. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...APT AVIATION...Dux