223
FXUS64 KFWD 271955
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/
/Through Friday/

An upper ridge currently centered over far West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico will gradually trek east over the state of
Texas the next couple of days. Expect oppressive heat and humidity
to continue through the short-term forecast period and beyond with
widespread afternoon highs in the mid-90s to low 100s. Our local
Excessive Heat Warning criteria is for areas that are forecast to
observe 110+ degree heat index values over two consecutive days.
Many locations across the DFW Metroplex and its collar counties
exceeded the 110 degree heat index threshold Wednesday afternoon
and are expected to reach the same mark later today. Therefore, an
Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect through this evening for
the Metroplex and surrounding areas where heat index values
between 110-115 degrees are likely. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect where heat index values are expected to remain
below 110 degrees or this is the first day the 110 degree
threshold is met. An area-wide Heat Advisory will likely be
extended into Friday evening, but we will kick the issuance to the
evening forecast shift when the EHW expires to avoid confusion
with the heat headlines.

A weak frontal boundary currently bisects our forecast area from
the northwest to the southeast along a Jacksboro-Corsicana line.
Isolated thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of
this boundary this afternoon into this evening as the region
remains on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. The best
potential for thunderstorms (20-30%) looks to reside across
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where deeper moisture and a
healthy cumulus field is currently present. The environment will
support isolated strong downburst winds and marginally severe
hail. Most locations will remain dry through this evening. Hot and
dry weather will continue into Friday as the upper ridge moves
directly overhead.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night into Next Week/

The heat will remain the dominant headline as we move through the
weekend into next week. A mid-level ridge will continue scorching
North and Central Texas, which is slowly moving its way east to
reposition itself across portions of the Southern Plains. Monday
and Tuesday will see the strongest subsidence as the ridge peaks
right over head. This will result in afternoon highs rising above
the century mark for most locations, especially across our west.
Heat indices will generally range between 105 and 112, meaning
future heat products will almost be guaranteed each day. Continue
to remain vigilant when fighting against the heat and take the
proper precautions to stay safe, especially for those vulnerable.

The forecast period remains mostly rain-free, with the exception
being through Sunday where a subtle shortwave may move across to
our north. A weak surface boundary may push into our northeastern
counties, which could result in isolated thunderstorms. Coverage
should remain quite sparse, and most locations will remain dry.

While Independence Day sits just outside of the long term
forecast period, preliminary data seems to suggest hot and dry
conditions for any festivities. Continue to check for updates!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions with southeast flow at 5-12 kt will prevail through
the TAF period for all terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop across portions of Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley later this afternoon and may approach KACT in the
22Z-02Z range. If storms move over the terminal, strong downburst
winds and frequent lightning will be possible.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 100  81  99  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                80  98  79  98  78 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               72  95  78  96  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              79 101  79 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77  99  79  99  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              80 100  81 100  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  97  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  99  79  98  79 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              79  99  79  98  77 /  10   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       79 101  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100-101-
105>107-115-116-120>123-129-130-135-141>143-146>148-156>162-174-
175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ102>104-117>119-131>134-144-145.

&&

$$