636
FXUS64 KFWD 240905
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/
/Overnight through Wednesday/

Mostly clear skies and humid conditions are in place across North
Texas tonight with some low clouds starting to develop across our
southeast counties. Our remnant frontal boundary appears to be
draped across the Hill Country at this hour, but the sharpest
925-850 mb theta-e axis is lined up just south of I-20. Satellite
imagery shows an expanding elevated cumulus field developing
across the Big Country, likely aided by weak warm advection atop
this boundary. For the remainder of tonight, we`ll likely see an
uptick in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly
south of I-20 into the early morning hours. Limited elevated
instability should keep the coverage of thunderstorms in check a
bit. We`ll have some 20-30% PoPs to account for this activity
with a gradual decrease in coverage through the late morning
hours.

Tuesday afternoon should be relatively quiet and warm with
temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s across the region.
Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the Southern
Plains and Mid South region tonight and will send another weak
cold front into North Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along this boundary Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. We`ll have 50-60% PoPs late Tuesday night
across the northern half of the CWA as this disturbance moves
through. Any lingering activity should diminish through the early
morning hours on Wednesday with drier and slightly cooler air
filtering into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low
to mid 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the
extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains
situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday
will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the
influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday.
As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before
becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent
southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%)
across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances,
slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this
system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and
Saturday.

This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend
while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights
aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper
80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows
will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail for much of the night, but areas of MVFR cigs/vis
will likely develop mainly to the south of Waco along with some
scattered showers during the overnight hours. A brief window of
MVFR vis in 5SM BR is possible throughout the D10 airspace during
the early morning hours, but much of the precipitation should
remain to the south. Winds will generally be light and variable
overnight, or a light westerly component into the early morning
hours before a more southwesterly wind becomes established during
the day. VFR should prevail much of the day Tuesday with another
weak cold front moving into the area tonight. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will likely accompany this front and have added
a VCTS from 25/09Z in the DFW TAF.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  67  83  63  83 /   5  50  10   0   5
Waco                87  67  83  61  83 /  30  30  20   0   5
Paris               87  63  83  59  81 /   0  60  10   5   5
Denton              89  64  83  59  83 /   0  50  10   0   5
McKinney            89  64  84  60  83 /   0  50  10   0   5
Dallas              90  67  84  63  84 /   5  40  10   0   5
Terrell             89  64  83  60  83 /   5  40  10   0   5
Corsicana           90  67  84  62  84 /  20  30  20   0   5
Temple              89  67  85  60  86 /  30  20  20   0   5
Mineral Wells       89  64  83  58  83 /  10  40  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$