807
FXUS64 KFWD 092234
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop along a southward
moving cold front through sunset. A few of these storms will hold
together as the front moves into the northern portion of the forecast
area in the next couple of hours. However, coverage of storms
will decrease with the loss of surface heating since convergence
on the front will remain weak.

Another area of storms, currently across the Concho Valley, will
also weaken and eventually dissipate once the sun sets.

We will maintain some low PoPs across the north, northwest and
southwest zones tonight and slightly the higher chance PoPs on
Monday.

Other than some minor first period PoP adjustments, no significant
changes are needed to the current forecast.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail the rest of today
before low storm chances arrive late this afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front continues to sag southward towards the TX/OK
border, and this boundary is likely to result in scattered
convection during peak heating as destabilization occurs.
Thunderstorms could affect our northern zones depending on how far
south this front advances the rest of this afternoon, and a
couple of strong storms with hail/wind threats can`t be ruled out.
However, a lack of shear will tend to limit storm organization
and strength. In addition, convection from an active West Texas
dryline is also likely to spread eastward towards the forecast
area overnight, some of which may spill into our northwestern
zones tomorrow morning while simultaneously weakening.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
tomorrow morning across North Texas as the front slowly continues
its southward advance. The overall environment will be
unfavorable for severe thunderstorms, but can`t completely rule
out some updrafts capable of hail with MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg
above the frontal inversion. PW values will also be remarkably
high, and any storms that do exist will be capable of brief heavy
downpours. However, the potential for long-lived training
thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and flooding is rather
low, and will once again be mitigated by a lack of shear to
organize deep convection. Showers and storms will accompany the
front southward into Central Texas during the afternoon, while
perhaps a slightly more organized complex encroaches on the area
from West Texas heading into the evening. With plenty of clouds
present along with slightly cooler air behind the front, highs
will only reach the mid 80s for most locations, with the exception
of southern Central Texas where temperatures will climb to around
90 prior to the front`s arrival.


-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

A shortwave trough will slowly transit the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. With the dissolution of the frontal boundary,
outflow from earlier convection will be the main features to focus
renewed development. A rather languid wind field will allow such
boundaries to linger. While the disturbance aloft will introduce
some directional shear, the flow will be seasonally subdued. This
will both limit the severe potential and reduce the speed of
individual cells. But there will still be enough instability and
forcing aloft to allow for some strong or marginally severe
storms, with hail and wind the potential hazards. Despite the
directional shear aloft, the weak flow within the boundary layer
should largely eliminate the tornadic potential. With considerable
precipitable water values, slow-moving downpours could reaggravate
flooding issues.

The mid-week event will likely feature two main rounds: one driven
by daytime heating Tuesday afternoon and a second resulting from
nocturnal forcing within the core of the shortwave early Wednesday
morning. Guidance is in better agreement with the timing and
evolution of the feature, the downglide portion of which should be
in place by midday Wednesday. Another extended rain-free period
will begin Wednesday afternoon.

A West Coast low will move inland late in the week and trek
through the Rockies. The will cause the meridionally oriented
ridge axis to our west to gain a positive tilt, nosing into the
Lone Star State. This will reduce cloud cover and steadily raise
temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should
keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by
late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea
breeze showers/storms during the weekend, but the bulk of the
activity should remain to our southeast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Few to scattered daytime Cu will dissipate with the loss of
surface heating, leaving only scattered to broken high clouds
associated with dissipating convection to the west.

A cold front, currently extending from West Texas to Southern
Oklahoma, will move into North Texas this evening. The front will
initially turn light south to southeast winds to the northeast.
This should occur across the Metroplex TAF sites late in the
evening, but not until closer to sunrise in Waco. Scattered
thunderstorms, currently along the front, should dissipate for
the most part with the loss of daytime heating, but additional
showers and a few storms are expected on Monday. A lack of strong
convergence on the front and limited large scale forcing for
ascent should keep coverage isolated to scattered. Therefore, we
will maintain VCSH or VCTS during the day Monday, but will not
include any prevailing or even temporary periods for thunderstorms
at the terminals.

Post-frontal MVFR or even high end IFR stratus is expected
overnight through Monday morning, but the low ceilings will
gradually lift above 3000 ft during the afternoon.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  85  71  87  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
Waco                74  87  72  88  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
Paris               69  82  64  85  65 /  20  20   5  10   5
Denton              69  84  68  86  68 /  30  30  20  20  30
McKinney            71  84  68  86  68 /  30  30  20  20  20
Dallas              73  85  71  87  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
Terrell             72  85  68  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
Corsicana           74  88  71  88  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
Temple              74  90  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
Mineral Wells       71  84  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$