Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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123 FXUS64 KFWD 140541 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 90s both today and Saturday. Thanks to decent mixing out of surface dewpoints during peak heating, maximum heat index values are largely expected to remain at or below the 100 degree mark the next couple of afternoons. However, southeast winds will be rather light at just 5-10 mph, and will do little to offer any relief from the summer heat. Otherwise, some passing cirrus spilling southward from convective activity well to our north along the KS/OK border will be the extent of sky cover present through the period. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/ Long story short: Expect a quiet weekend before an unsettled pattern brings on and off rain chances next week. Short story long: A closed upper low currently off the coast of SoCal will de-amplify into an open shortwave as it moves onshore and towards the Central Plains this weekend. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep South in response. The shortwave will slowly move across the Continental Divide early this weekend, but North and Central Texas will remain dry as better moisture and lift remain displaced to the north. A warm weekend is expected with afternoon temperatures in the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100-101. Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find themselves between a trough and a high place. We`ll continue to be located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with a longwave trough to our northwest. Moisture advection will really increase beginning early in the week, ushering abundant tropical moisture in the form of around 2" PWATs and 70s dewpoints in to the region. While overall forcing will remain nebulous without a direct focusing boundary/shortwave, diurnal heating will allow for isolated-scattered showers and storms during the afternoons on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across our east and southeast zones. Isolated storm chances will expand region-wide in the latter portions of this next week as the northern extent of a tropical wave in the western GOM advances further inland. We`ll continue to watch for more fine-scale details as they come in, but threats of heavy rain and lightning will interrupt any outdoor plans. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds of 5-10 kts. FEW/SCT cirrus will spill into North Texas associated with dissipating convection far to the north, and this will be the extent of sky cover present at the airports for the next 30 hours. Patchy MVFR stratus is possible each of the next two mornings in parts of Central Texas, but will remain well south and east of the TAF sites. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 95 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 72 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 67 93 69 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 74 95 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 73 94 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 74 95 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 68 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 70 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 93 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 95 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$