565
FXUS64 KFWD 170548
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

Tropical moisture from the Gulf will be funneled northward within
strengthening southeasterly low-level flow through the first half
of the week, with PW values progressively increasing. This will
contribute to morning stratus intrusions, followed by scattered
shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Rain
chances both today and Tuesday will be highest across the
southeast, tapering off to near zero farther to the northwest.
Given the rather robust southeasterly low-level flow of as much as
30-40 kts, a fairly active seabreeze feature could become
established. In this case, convection could certainly spread as
far north as the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. Showers and
storms will cease with loss of heating with tranquil weather
overnight. While this activity would be incapable of producing
severe weather, brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds are
certainly possible. Thanks to increased moisture content, cloud
cover, and the presence of some rain-cooled air, high
temperatures will only reach the low to mid 90s across most of the
area both today and tomorrow.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/
/Tuesday Onward/

An unsettled weather pattern is expected over midweek as an
inverted trough and associated tropical disturbance move across
Mexico/South Texas. Stout southerly low-level flow on the back-
side of the eastern CONUS ridge will continue, sending abundant
moisture across the region. As the aforementioned tropical
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moves closer to the Texas/Mexico
coastline on Tuesday, the upper trough will expand northward into
Central Texas. This expansion will provide enough lift to promote
isolated showers and storms across East Texas over the afternoon
and evening hours. Rich tropical moisture in the form of near 2"
PWATs are expected in our eastern counties, and will support the
potential for heavy rain.

The tropical disturbance will move onshore midweek, bringing rain
chances further westward on Wednesday. Best chances for showers and
storms will be in southern Central Texas, gradually decreasing the
further north you go. Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are
expected to move from east to west over the day Wednesday. Severe
weather is not expected during this time, however periods of
heavy rain and lightning will impact outdoor plans. Current most
likely 72 hour rainfall totals (Tues through Fri) are 1.5-3"
across Central Texas, and 1.5" or less north of I-20.

Persistent uncertainty remains in the exact location and track of
the tropical disturbance and associated surface low. The GFS has had
a more northern track into South Texas, while the NAM and ECMWF are
further south into Mexico. The location of the low will impact
rainfall totals, with a more northern track bringing much higher
rainfall across our Central Texas counties, and vice-versa. To put
this into a probabilistic perspective, out of all ensemble members
(GEFS / GEPS / EFS), 55% support a more northern track. Yesterday,
only 23% of members had this solution. We will continue to watch
this in future model runs to for more agreement and consistency to
increase our confidence in rainfall totals. Continue to keep an eye
on the forecast going into this week.

Thanks to the rain cooled air and cloudy skies both Wednesday and
Thursday will feel fairly cool for summer standards, with highs
mainly in the 80s both afternoons. Later Thursday night/overnight
into Friday, the rain will exit our Big Country counties, allowing
for a short respite from the rain for most. Low chances for isolated
storms will remain both Friday and Saturday for our southernmost
zones. Looking ahead, just out of the bounds of the long term
forecast period, there is potential for another GOM tropical
disturbance to bring additional showers and storms late next
weekend. We`ll cover this in the coming days.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

An intrusion of MVFR stratus is likely to affect some of the
airports this morning, although the coverage and longevity of
these low cigs is still uncertain at this time. After scattering
to VFR occurs by this afternoon, isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity will spread northwestward into parts of East and Central
Texas, perhaps affecting the Waco TAF site and even parts of D10
through the late afternoon hours. The potential for convection at
the DFW Metroplex TAF sites is too low to currently mention in the
TAFs, but there is a small chance that a consolidated seabreeze
could allow for convection to spread into the TAF sites prior to
dissipating this evening. Otherwise, a persistent southeast breeze
of 10-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts will prevail through the
period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  93  76  92  73 /   0  20   5  20  10
Waco                75  91  75  90  73 /   0  20   5  20  10
Paris               73  90  72  90  71 /   0  20  10  10  10
Denton              76  93  74  92  71 /   0  10   5   5   5
McKinney            76  91  74  91  71 /   0  20   5  10  10
Dallas              77  93  75  92  73 /   0  20   5  20  10
Terrell             75  91  73  90  71 /   0  20  10  20  10
Corsicana           74  92  75  92  74 /   0  20  10  20  20
Temple              76  93  74  91  73 /   5  20   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       74  93  75  92  72 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$