383
FXUS64 KFWD 260013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
713 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/

A hot afternoon is currently coming to a close, with observed high
temperatures ranging in the mid-upper 90s across North and Central
Texas. Quite a few locales reached/exceeded our Heat Advisory
criteria, with those sites observing peak heat indices between
105-110 degrees. A couple shortwave disturbances rounding the apex
of the ridge will help to shunt the dome of subsident air further
west, putting North and Central Texas under northwest flow aloft
through midweek. Accompanying this northwest flow will be a couple
of chances for storm clusters to move south/southeast through the
CWA tomorrow.

Guidance continues to highlight storms initializing in southern
Iowa, growing upscale into an MCS overnight, and eventually moving
across our eastern counties over the day on Wednesday.
Additionally, more westward storm initiation remains possible into
the evening across North Texas in the presence of a surface front
just to the north of the Red River and/or with the southward-
moving outflow boundary. Strong to marginally severe storms will
be possible during this time, with strong downburst winds,
lightning, and small hail the main hazards.

Otherwise, another hot and humid day is expected tomorrow with
high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
Persistently humid conditions will keep afternoon heat indices
within the 105-110 degree range, hence the Heat Advisory continues
to be in effect until 7 PM Wednesday.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

A weak surface boundary will be draped somewhere across the
northeast third of the region at the start of the forecast period,
which may warrant 10-20 POPs on Thursday where an isolated storm
or two may occur. Subsidence associated with a strengthening ridge
aloft will shut down most convective attempts, however, keeping
the vast majority of the region hot, humid and rain-free. The
ridge will remain overhead through the weekend and actually
strengthen during the early part of next week. Triple digit high
temperatures will be the result just about every afternoon with
heat index values regularly in the 105 to 110 degree range. Sunday
will be another day where a few storms may occur across the
northeast associated with another weak front, but POPs will again
remain 10 to 20 percent. Strong ridging and oppressive heat will
otherwise likely continue through the July 4th holiday.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Afternoon cumulus will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating
tonight, while southerly winds persist. Another deck of MVFR
stratus will surge northward just after daybreak, covering ACT and
attempting to reach the eastern portions of D10. The probability
of prevailing MVFR cigs in D10 are low at this time and have
introduced a TEMPO to cover this potential. Ceilings will scatter
back to VFR by noon tomorrow, with another episode of diurnal cu
expected. Southerly winds will continue through the rest of the
period.

There is potential for isolated storms to approach eastern D10
tomorrow afternoon, though better chances remain east of the TAF
sites. Have foregone inclusion of any VCTS with this issuance due
to low confidence of impacts and disagreement of guidance. We`ll
continue to monitor this overnight.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  82 101  81 /   0  10  10   0   0
Waco                78  97  78  98  78 /   0   5   5   0   0
Paris               78  97  76  97  77 /   5  20  20   5   0
Denton              79 101  78 102  78 /   5  10  20   0   0
McKinney            80  99  79 101  79 /   5  20  20   5   0
Dallas              80  99  81 101  81 /   0  10  20   0   0
Terrell             78  97  78  98  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
Corsicana           79  97  79  99  79 /   5  10  10   5   0
Temple              78  97  77  98  76 /   0   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 101  77 101  78 /   0   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$