Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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997 FXUS64 KFWD 242010 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ The summer heat is upon North and Central Texas as an upper-level ridge has settled atop our region. This ridge, which spans across much of the Southern Plains, will help keep precipitation at bay. The main weather concern today, and likely through through the rest of the week, will be the hot conditions that will increase the risk for heat related illnesses. Temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around 100 this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. With south/southeasterly winds in place today, slightly better moisture is expected across our region compared to yesterday. Although temperatures will be similar to yesterday, dew points will be a few degrees higher. This will translate into higher heat index values, generally ranging from 100-109 degrees. The more concentrated heat is expected to be along and east of I-35, therefore, a Heat Advisory is already in effect. Tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to today, thus, more widespread 105+ heat index values are expected. The heat advisory will begin at noon tomorrow for areas west of I-35 and likely be extended for several more days. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Strong ridging aloft centered over West Texas will become compromised on its east flank late Tuesday into Wednesday by a shortwave trough dropping southeast from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This disturbance will help drag a cold front south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday. The front and the shortwave together will provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Tuesday night when a east-west oriented linear complex will approach from the north. Storms should weaken as the approach the Red River, but will likely hold together long enough to impact areas along and north of Highway 380. A second opportunity will be Wednesday afternoon when isolated storms may develop along the stationary front and move south, which would also affect areas mainly near the Red River. It is possible that convection may survive as far south as the I-20 corridor, but probabilities are fairly low (around 20%). Severe weather appears unlikely at this time in either case, but gusty winds and heavy rain may accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main concern for the next week. It is possible that outflow associated with Tuesday night/Wednesday convection may knock a few degrees off dewpoints and/or temperatures, which may allow for a break in the Heat Advisory for the northern counties for a day. Unfortunately, compressional warming south of the front will add a few degrees for areas that miss out on rain or thunderstorm outflow. The ridge will expand east on Thursday, shutting off rain chances once again and immersing the entire region in hot and humid conditions Thursday through the end of the forecast period. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ With upper-level high pressure in control, precipitation is not expected within D10 airspace or in Central Texas. Afternoon cumulus clouds have developed causing no impacts to the airspace. The current southerly winds will continue through the rest of this TAF period with no significant changes expected. There is a low chance (<30%) that MVFR ceilings impact KACT closer to sunrise. This plume of moisture is likely to skirt KACT with a higher areal coverage of MVFR ceilings across the Brazos Valley. If the probability increases any further, an MVFR ceiling will need to be included for tomorrow. Similar to today, additional cumulus clouds are expected tomorrow afternoon. The clouds should remain fairly scattered AOA FL040. Impacts to area airports are not expected. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 82 100 81 / 0 0 20 10 5 Waco 78 96 78 98 79 / 0 0 5 5 5 Paris 78 96 78 96 76 / 5 5 10 30 5 Denton 78 100 79 99 78 / 5 5 20 10 5 McKinney 78 97 79 98 78 / 0 5 20 20 5 Dallas 81 99 81 99 81 / 0 0 20 10 5 Terrell 77 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 10 10 5 Corsicana 78 97 79 97 79 / 5 0 5 5 5 Temple 76 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 78 98 79 100 77 / 0 0 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102- 115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$