Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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221 FXUS64 KFWD 041910 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ This morning`s showers and thunderstorms have finally exited to the east. While we`ll have a break from showers and storms for the remainder of the afternoon and evening, hot and humid conditions will make for a rather uncomfortable afternoon across the region. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s and 90s across most of the area, with a few spots across western North Texas potentially reaching the 100 degree mark. High humidity will result in heat index values above 100 degrees across quite a few locations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening for portions of Central Texas where heat index values between 105-110 degrees are expected this afternoon. Fortunately, breezy winds should provide a small amount of relief, but it`ll still feel quite balmy outside today. Sometime this evening, another MCS is expected to develop in Oklahoma and will move south through the overnight hours. We are fairly confident this complex of storms will clip areas east and northeast of the Metroplex late tonight into Wednesday morning. However, the western extent of these storms is highly uncertain. While it`s likely these storms will remain east of the I-35/I-45 corridors, we can`t rule out a few storms further west. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, and a Flood Watch has been issued for areas that have the highest likelihood of seeing renewed flooding. The current area covered by the Flood Watch may need to be adjusted if models trend further west, but this will be reassessed through the evening. As for the severe threat, we are fairly confident these storms will maintain at least some of their intensity as they cross the Red River. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat, with a lower threat for large hail. However, if discrete storms are able to develop along any outflow boundaries, they would inherently have a higher threat for large hail. Confidence is low in how much and how quickly these storms will weaken as they move south, but all storms should exit to our east sometime late Wednesday morning. The rest of the day Wednesday won`t be quite as hot as today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values will reach between 100-105 degrees for a few locations, particularly across Central Texas, but are too marginal to warrant an extension of the current Heat Advisory for now. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ High pressure should build into the region Wednesday night as a mid-level ridge noses in from the west. Our forecast area should finally experience a thunderstorm-free day Thursday, which would be the first since May 20th. Unfortunately, the lack of rain also means temperatures will rebound into the mid-upper 90s Thursday afternoon. Heat index values will be higher, but generally below our Heat Advisory criteria. The high pressure will be short-lived as a backdoor cold front moves into North Texas Friday. Another MCS should develop along the front in Oklahoma late Thursday, but subtle mid-level ridging over our area only allows for a 20% chance of it moving south of the Red River Friday morning. As the front sags into our forecast area Friday, it should provide enough lift to develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Coarse global ensemble data struggled to resolve the location of the front and/or failed to initiate convection along the boundary, therefore QPF guidance is resulting in anomalously low PoPs from the NBM. We have added 30% PoPs across the central part of our forecast area, or about 50 miles north and south of where we think the front will be during peak heating Friday. It appears to be a high CAPE, low shear day with a low-end severe risk. Our main concern is damaging wind gusts from collapsing storms, but mid-level moisture advection would weaken downdrafts and lower the wind potential. The front will linger somewhere across the Southern Plains through the weekend before another backdoor cold front brings seasonally warm weather to the area early next week. Similar to Friday, isolated to scattered storms are expected near the fronts each afternoon. Since the placement of the fronts are still highly uncertain, we have broad 20-30% PoPs from Sunday onward. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings are finally lifting, with VFR and breezy/gusty winds expected for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will be out of the south near 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Wind speeds should decrease this evening, remaining near 10 knots or less through the end of the period. A complex of storms is expected to develop in Oklahoma this evening and move south through portions of North Texas late tonight into Wednesday morning. VCTS was introduced to the D10 TAFs with this issuance, but how far west storms will develop remains highly uncertain at this time. It`s possible storms will remain east of the terminals, but this will be reassessed through the evening. Even if storms do remain to the east, we`ll have to monitor for another outflow boundary to bring a northeast wind shift to D10 very similar to this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at all terminals early Wednesday morning through midday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 74 91 74 95 / 5 20 20 5 0 Waco 94 76 91 74 93 / 5 10 20 5 5 Paris 85 69 87 69 92 / 50 60 20 5 5 Denton 92 74 90 71 94 / 5 20 5 5 5 McKinney 89 73 89 71 93 / 5 30 20 5 5 Dallas 91 75 91 74 96 / 5 20 20 5 0 Terrell 89 73 89 71 92 / 20 20 30 5 0 Corsicana 91 75 90 74 93 / 20 20 30 10 5 Temple 95 76 93 74 93 / 5 10 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 98 74 92 71 96 / 5 10 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-120>123-135-148. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-156>160-174- 175. && $$