297
FXUS63 KGID 241956
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
256 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs through the rest of the week will generally range in the mid
70s to lower 80s.

- A dry forecast for the next 7 days. The chance for
  precipitation remains below 10% areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tonight...

Scattered light showers from early this morning may be the only
precipitation that the area receives in the next week. The
continuation of this dry period falls as the deeper troughing
extending through the MO/MS River Valley regions continues to scoot
east to make room for amplified ridging currently over the Desert
SW/Rockies. Central Nebraska and Kansas this evening finds itself
split between these two features, a pocket favorable for sinking air
and suppressed precipitation chances. This pocket is also where
you`ll find the strong northerly jet aloft, a feature that will show
itself from a bit of thin and high wispy cirrus above the low level
cumulus the rest of this afternoon into early this evening. Highs
today will stick it out in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s, falling
as low as the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight. Winds will stay out
of the north through the evening, becoming light and variable
overnight.

Wednesday through Thursday...

High pressure building at the surface combined with the downstream
eastward propagation of the mid to upper level ridge will continue
the dry spell onward. Clear skies will allow temperatures to creep up
a degree or two warmer from Tuesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wind will stay light and variable throughout the day from the
absence of any consequential surface pressure gradient.

Meanwhile, more blocking of the upper level flow occurs as the
trough overhead from this past weekend becomes cut off from the main
flow. This low gets locked in place over the central Mississippi
valley. This low will contribute to the quiet weather pattern in
place with some influence later on Friday. Highs Thursday will stay
fairly the same (upper 70s to lower 80s) with a 20-30% chance for a
few areas to the north and west of the Tri-Cities to stretch as high
as the mid 80s. Winds will be light (5 to 10 MPH) and out of the
south.

Friday through Saturday...

The Central Nebraska and Kansas area aloft will become sandwiched
by the cut off low to the southeast and the Great Plains ridging to
the north. Precipitation chances have fallen to virtually non-
existent (<10%) Friday for the southern and eastern areas. It is
looking less likely for the deep moisture from the land falling
tropical system to stretch as far north and west into the Central
Plains. Even with the help of the moisture conveyor belt around the
cutoff low, the rain foot from system outflow may only reach into a
few parts of eastern Kansas. The most that our coverage area may
receive is a few clouds from this system.

Otherwise, temperatures will look to follow the weekly trend (upper
70s to lower 80s). Fire weather is not of immediate concern so far
this week, however, it is creeping closer and closer with the steady
drying out of surface moisture. Relative humidity this week may
bottom as low as 25-30% during the day, a typical site for this time
of year. Any influx of wind can quickly flip the script.

Sunday and beyond...

General broad high surface pressure will stick around early next
week from the influence of the blocked flow pattern heading into the
weekend. Temperatures will be expected to once again start off a
touch above average (upper 70s to lower 80s, around 5 to 10 degrees
above seasonal average). The current leading scenario out of several
possible outcomes includes a strong cold front that may dip down
front Canada next Tuesday. If this scenario plays out, it could bring
the next areawide precipitation chance or a temporary shift back
down to near normal temperatures at the very least. Confidence
remains low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will stick it out over the next 24 hours. A few
lower level cumulous (6,000 ft) and high level ice clouds
(>25,000ft) will soar past for the remainder of the day. Winds
at the surface will be out of the north through this evening
around 10-14 kt and gusting as high at 20 kt in the daytime
(through 23z). Overnight winds will calm and rotate west.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump