595
FXUS63 KGID 120533
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorm chances this evening, with more
  widespread showers and storms tonight into Saturday morning. A
  few storms could become strong to marginally severe.

- Cooler and pleasant on Saturday. Warming up Sunday/Monday, but
  still dry.

- Thunderstorm chances return to the area Tuesday-Thursday of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Skies have cleared across much of the area (except for
southeastern parts of the area), allowing temperatures to reach
the 80s in most spots. Visible satellite shows developing
cumulus in the vicinity of a cold front slowly pushing across
the Sandhills. CAMs keep any development along this boundary
relatively isolated, and weak shear should keep updrafts
disorganized and short-lived. Nevertheless, if storms
materialize this evening, one or two could produce some isolated
hail/gusty wind (primarily northwest of a line from Lexington
to Columbus).

Further west, more widespread convection will develop over WY/CO
in response to the upper shortwave. This activity is then
anticipated to move into central Nebraska/Kansas after midnight.
Increased shear should sustain these storms into Saturday
morning, but the question is how intense they will remain as
instability decreases. As such, the western half of the area has
the best chance to see severe hail/wind, and SPC has trimmed out
the Marginal risk to be primarily from Highway 281 westward.

Some showers/storms may linger in southern parts of the area
past sunrise Saturday morning, then skies will slowly clear
through the morning and afternoon on Saturday. The post-frontal
airmass will feature cooler temperatures, less humidity, and
pretty light winds. A very comfortable day for mid July!

Sunday and Monday trend warmer as ridging moves into the
central/northern Plains. Heat index values return to the mid to
upper 90s by Monday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the area on Tuesday as the next
upper shortwave and surface front move into the area. Machine-
learning severe probabilities are not overly impressive (5-10%),
but there is at least some risk for severe weather in the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes right off the bat in the
first few hours, as yet another round of showers/thunderstorms
continues pushing east into the area...with the main period of
potential impact looking to be between 06-09Z. Once this
activity pushes SE of the terminal areas...have the remainder of
this period dry with VFR conditions. Overall light winds are
expected for this period...generally northerly through the
morning hours, then becoming more variable as sfc high pressure
slides through the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP