446
FNUS75 KGJT 211438
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for North Elk Ridge RX...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
838 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0813 MDT on September 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A storm system will move through the area this
morning through the afternoon, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms this morning, becoming more widespread this
afternoon into the evening. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph and
lightning are the primary concerns with storm activity today with
brief light to moderate rain possible at times. Mixing and fair
smoke dispersal will occur especially during times of rain. Much
cooler and drier conditions expected Sunday in the wake of the
storm.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning, then rain showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....53-58.
Min humidity........32-37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 mph shifting to the west and
                    becoming upslope/upvalley 8 to 12 mph with gusts
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 4.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 mph.
Clearing Index......330 increasing to 620 in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....36-41.
Max humidity........86-91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 12 mph in the early evening,
                    becoming downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0-7000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 0200, then 1.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL, decreasing to 400 or less after
                    sunset and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 mph.
Clearing Index......90.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....57-62.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph until 1000, then
                    north winds 8 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 14 mph.
Clearing Index......400.

$$
Forecaster...Matt Aleksa
Requested by...Timothy Spurr
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422716.1/GJT
.DELDT 09/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy.spurr@usda.gov