186
FXUS63 KGLD 070442
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1042 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather returns Friday. Main threat is hail up to golf
  ball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH with a secondary threat
  of Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) tornadoes.

- Active weather pattern continues Saturday through Monday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Anticipating showers and storms to develop around sunrise as
isentropic lift enhances; RAP has consistently been showing this
additional lift making it to the I-70 corridor so have added
slight chance (20%) pops to include this area. These storms
should be fairly decent (albeit quick) precipitation makers; no
severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.

Did increase temperatures area wide for tomorrow with mid to
upper 90s currently forecasted as nearly all guidance other than
the NAM have increased temperatures. Do need to keep the NAM in
mind however as the moisture return is quite a bit stronger with
dew points being in the mid 60s to upper 60s; which if this
occurs temperatures won`t be as warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Early this afternoon the sky was clear as dry northwest upper level
flow persisted over the Central Plains.  A ridge was centered over
the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes Region.  At
the surface a cooler air mass was over the forecast area with light
easterly winds and a surface ridge over Nebraska.

For the rest of the day the winds will continue to be light but turn
to the south as a surface high pressure over Nebraska drifts to the
east.

Tonight light south winds are expected.  A weak upper level short
wave trough will move over Southwest Kansas during the evening into
the overnight hours.  The strongest forcing with this trough will be
over the TX/OK panhandles.  There may be some isolated storm
activity over the forecast area.  However confidence is just high
enough for these storms to occur to include them in the forecast.

Friday will be warmer than today due to the WAA from the south
winds.  During the day a dry line will setup near the CO/KS border.
By mid afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the
forecast area from the west.  There is very little to no instability
over East Central CO, so am not anticipating much for thunderstorm
coverage.  Due to the high cloud bases, strong winds may occur with
any storms that form.  As the upper level short wave trough
approaches the dry line, storm coverage may increase as well as
storm intensity.  Models indicate a line of storms should form as
the outflow boundaries form the initial storms merge together.  The
mean flow is to the east-southeast so anticipate the storm activity
to head that direction through the afternoon and evening.

Friday night storm coverage should increase before mid evening over
the eastern third of the forecast area, with lesser coverage to the
west where the lift is not as strong and the environment is more
stable.

Regarding threats initial, lone storms are supportive of hail up to
golfball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH.  However as storms merge
together the threat will shift to more of damaging wind gusts than
hail. A secondary threat will be the potential for QLCS tornadoes to
occur over the eastern half of the forecast area.  Latest data shows
the 0-3km winds are orientated in a similar direction to the mean
wind. The shear will be 30-40 kts, more than enough to support brief
tornado development for any part of the line that is perpendicular
to the 0-3 km shear.  The tornado threat will be more of a concern
during the evening when the low level winds increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Saturday through Thursday will have chances for storms continuing.
The setup is very similar to what has occurred Sunday and what will
occur Friday; an upper level short wave trough moving in from the
west leading to storm activity spreading across the forecast area
from west to east.

Saturday the strongest storm activity should be confined to the
southwest quadrant of the forecast area where the instability will
be.  A cold front will be draped over the southwest part of the
forecast area.  Behind the front will be little to no instability.

Sunday and Monday the cooler air mass looks to shift some to the
northeast, allowing instability to move over the western half of the
forecast area.  More stable air continues to the east.

Tuesday through Thursday the upper level ridge currently over the
west shifts toward and then over the forecast area.  There are some
weaker troughs which move through.  However model consensus has
little to no rainfall chances for the forecast area.  Wouldn`t be
surprised if there ends up being minimal rainfall chances during
this timeframe given the weak upper level troughs moving through.

Thursday night models have the strongest upper level short wave
trough of the week moving over the forecast area.  Quite a bit can
change between now and then.  However this is something to be aware
of as this trough passage would provide the best chance for severe
weather, if the track/timing hold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VAD wind profiler at KGLD shows LLWS potential increasing along
with support from RAP and GFS forecast soundings so will include
for each terminal overnight. Confidence has continued to
increase in -tsra to impact the GLD terminal so have added in a
tempo for this. Southerly winds then continue through the day
before another chance of storms moves across the area. Overall
coverage continues to remain murky so have opted to go with
VCTS as any storms look to be isolated to scattered, severe
weather may be possible as well. Winds then turn to the north
behind the storms through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg