052
FXUS63 KGLD 250815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potentially damaging wind gusts with decaying
  showers/thunderstorms through much of tonight.

- Continued hot Tuesday with Heat Advisories continuing in
  Norton and Graham counties.

- Less hot with increasing chances for beneficial rainfall late
  Wednesday afternoon/overnight and again overnight Thursday.

- Quite a bit cooler (slightly below normal daytime
  temperatures) Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight...a weather system is forecast to move off the Cheyenne
Ridge and Palmer Divide areas and through parts of the area through
about 3 AM MDT. The primary hazard from any thunderstorm will be
strong, sudden and potentially damaging outflow wind gusts in the 65
to 75 mph range, possibly up to 80 mph per latest WINDEX wind gust
guidance. There could be a few heat bursts, especially overnight and
during the dissipating stages of any showers and/or thunderstorms as
they bring down rather hot temperatures aloft. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...there could be a few thunderstorms a few
hours either side of 00z, in the vicinity of some moisture in the
700-500mb layer and near a frontal boundary. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees with low
temperatures in the 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...a pretty organized weather system moves
off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado by late
afternoon, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Overnight, this system continues moving east across the remainder of
the forecast area with 40%-50% pops currently advertised. PWAT
values increase into the 1.3-1.9" range, supporting some beneficial
rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to
middle 90s with low temperatures in the 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...showers/thunderstorms across the east in
the morning move off with some drying aloft and subsidence with only
20% chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight, another
weather system moves through, supporting 40%-60% chances for showers
and thunderstorms. GFS PWAT values through midnight peak in the 1.2-
1.9" range before decreasing. 0-6km winds are generally 15-25kts,
supporting another chance for beneficial rainfall. High temperatures
are currently forecast to be in the 90s. There could be some stratus
lingering across the northeast half of the area through the day
which would greatly impact the temperature forecast with lower
temperatures. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Cold front will slip into the area Friday morning and stall out
just south or possibly in the southern part of the forecast
area by the time of peak heating and convective initiation
Friday afternoon. A fairly decent shortwave will be coming out
of Colorado to aid in ascent. While the front will undoubtedly
be the favored area for convection, the post frontal upslope
environment should also see fairly high precipitation chances
going into Friday night. Instability is modest at best,
generally 500-1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear is excellent
due to the directional component. Forecast soundings show a hot,
dry, deeply mixed environment, even post frontal, which should
yield a low-end marginal risk for severe wind gusts or hail.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s and lows in
the 60s.

Upper ridge strengthens over Texas for the weekend resulting in
southwesterly flow aloft over the central High Plains. Will see
weak perturbations rotate around the ridge resulting in
scattered thunderstorm chances both days. Chances on Saturday
may wait until Saturday night with fairly stable conditions
during the day, but with more typical afternoon and evening
chances on Sunday. In fact, models show a narrow corridor of
moderate instability Sunday afternoon straddling the Kansas and
Colorado border area along with deep layer shear of 40-50 kts.
That would support a severe risk, including supercells, if the
trend continues. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
80s on Saturday and low 90s on Sunday, with lows in the 60s.

Upper pattern will be more or less the same on Monday, but
surface pattern shows more of a dry, southwest wind in most of
the area with the instability axis shifting eastward from Hays
into southwest Kansas. With another shortwave coming out of
Colorado in the afternoon and evening, storms chances will
continue. Would probably only see a marginal wind risk with
storms in the majority of the area with temperatures back into
the lower 100s and deeply mixed, inverted-v soundings, but
closer to the aforementioned instability in eastern areas could
see a hail threat with stronger storms. However, confidence in
those kind of details are low at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. The only potential hazard is severe storms tomorrow
afternoon. KMCK has a slightly better chance that KGLD, but both
chances are currently low as guidance varies if there will be
enough moisture and forcing for storms to develop. If they do,
lightning and wind gusts around 55-75 mph would be the main
threats. Otherwise, winds will shift from out of the south, to
out of the west during the morning, then to out of the north
late in the day. If storms do form, be alert for sudden wind
shifts with outflow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State
area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of
focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27.

Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these
areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds
will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times.
There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to
northerly on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at
least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few
degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for
Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast.

                      Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           109F in 2012

Burlington CO         107F in 1954

Hill City KS          114F in 2012

McCook NE             107F in 1943

Colby KS              107F in 2012

Tribune KS            109F in 2012

Yuma CO               103F in 2002

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN