383
FXPQ50 PGUM 102014
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
614 AM ChST Tue Jun 11 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery indicates moderate trades bringing in unsettled
weather to the region for the next few hours. Recent altimetry passes
and Ritidian buoy indicate seas are 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A disturbance enhanced by an upper-level col aloft, is generating
outflow boundaries that are expected to bring numerous heavy showers
and scattered thunderstorms across the region over the next few
hours. As the boundary layer disturbance wanes and exits to the west
by noon, shower and thunderstorm coverage should diminish slightly,
with thunder potential decreasing significantly by tonight. A brief
period of much more pleasant weather is expected Wednesday night
through Thursday night, followed by another enhancement in the trades
that could bring patchy showers and thunderstorms, as the speed
convergence zone of the TUTT cell overhead settles in. A return to a
drier trade regime is expected by early next week.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to drop a foot by tonight,
before increasing once again towards the weekend as trade swell and
wind waves strengthen. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected
along east facing reefs through Wednesday, and a low risk is
expected along all other reefs for the rest of the week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A trough just east of Majuro will trigger scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms this week for the Marshalls. The showers won`t
reach Kosrae until tonight, and will not arrive at Pohnpei until
Wednesday night. They are expected to continue through Saturday at
all 3 locations.

Kosrae and Majuro will have benign marine conditions with seas of 6
feet or less and winds of 15 knots or less, so just watch for
lightning and take shelter if necessary. Pohnpei could have winds of
around 20 knots Wednesday night. This is close to advisory criteria
and could prove challenging. Take extra care, avoiding Wednesday
night travel if possible.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A trough east of Yap will affect Western Micronesia over the next few
days. Chuuk is getting a chance to dry out, with just a few
straggling thunderstorms possible today, then fairly dry weather
until Wednesday night, when the trough from Eastern Micronesia will
arrive.

Yap will have scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the
rest of this week. At Koror, meanwhile, the showers will diminish
after Wednesday, then pick back up again for Saturday.

Chuuk will have winds of 15 knots or less and seas of 5 feet or less.
Yap will see winds of 10 knots or less and seas of 4 feet or less.
And Koror will receive light winds and seas of 3 feet or less. All of
these are benign marine conditions, so just watch for lightning in
periods of bad weather.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
Micronesia: Stanko