684
FXPQ50 PGUM 090743
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
543 PM ChST Sun Jun 9 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle trades prevail across the region. Satellite imagery depicts
partly cloudy skies and isolated showers across the Marianas.
Ritidian buoy indicates seas are 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Minor changes were made to the forecast. The biggest change was
delaying the onset for thunder to Tuesday for Guam and Rota coastal
waters and Wednesday for Tinian and Saipan coastal waters. This is
mostly due to guidance not showing the TUTT moving over the Marianas
until the end of the week. That said, the models do show periods of
upper divergence through the middle of the week as the TUTT
temporarily moves east, so thunder was kept for that period.
Otherwise, the forecast was mostly left intact from the previous
forecasts.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to drop a foot by the
middle of the week, before increasing once again towards next
weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along east
facing reefs for the next few days, and a low risk is expected along
all other reefs for the rest of the week. A moderate risk for
lightning will be possible for Guam and Rota coastal waters starting
Tuesday, and for Tinian and Saipan coastal waters on Wednesday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A weakening ITCZ is seen from near Pohnpei to near Chuuk. There is a
weak circulation to the southwest of Chuuk as well, centered near
4N149E, with a trough extending east-northeast, just south of Weno
and north of Pohnpei. The trough and ITCZ are interacting to produce
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near Pohnpei and Chuuk
this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure is seen to the west of
Chuuk and is helping to slow the western progress of the circulation
and trough. Based on this, the enhance convection looks to continue
a bit longer, through this evening, at Pohnpei and through Monday at
Chuuk. To the east, a dry pattern looks to continue at Majuro
through Monday night and at Kosrae through Tuesday. This is when a
series of trade-wind troughs begin to move through the region.
Models are also showing another ITCZ developing across eastern
Micronesia as early as Tuesday night. The interaction between the
troughs and the new ITCZ will maintain an overall wet pattern
spreading across eastern Micronesia and Chuuk, with increased
convection moving into Majuro Tuesday, spreading westward to Kosrae
Tuesday night, Pohnpei Wednesday and Chuuk Thursday.

Other than the expected increase in showers later in the week, there
is not much going on in the marine environment. Combined seas look
to be no more than around 6 feet through the end of the week. Mostly
gentle to moderate winds are expected through the week, with
occasional fresh winds possible at Majuro Monday into Monday night.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
Light to gentle winds continue over Yap and Palau waters with
scattered showers over Palau`s waters. A disturbance west of Palau
is moving northwest with showers trailing behind as winds converge
on the east side of the disturbance. Scattered showers tonight for
Palau is expected to decrease to isolated later tonight, then
isolated showers for a day to two. Lighter winds are expected at
Koror so there is a possibility of afternoon thunderstorms. For Yap,
expect isolated showers through Monday night with a chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon with lighter southeast winds.

A weak and broad circulation is seen southeast of Eauripik which by
around mid week is forecast to pass through Yap and Palau bringing
scattered showers.

Combined seas of 3 to 4 feet were observed on Yap and Palau`s buoys
and on altimetry. Little change is expected in wave heights through
the coming week, and light to gentle winds are expected to continue
through most of the week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Williams
Eastern Micronesia: Kleeschulte
Western Micronesia: Hong