Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
965 FXUS66 KHNX 222010 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 110 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue with a 30 to 60 percent probability of temperatures reaching the triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday. The temperatures are expected to remain slightly above normal for the rest of the week. 2. A dry week for the region is expected for all Interior Central California. Relative Humidities are expected to fall into the single digits during the afternoon hours for Eastern Kern County. The rest of the areas`s Relative Humidity values will fall into the teens. Overnight recoveries will be poor for the desert and higher elevations while moderate for the valley bottom. && .DISCUSSION... A little upper wind pattern with weak troughing starts the forecast period late this Sunday afternoon. A little cumulus build up over the Sierra has a very slim probability of forming any thunderstorms right along the crest line. Otherwise, another sunny day in Interior Central California. On Monday most of the Golden State is in between the Northern Plains trough and Latitudinal ridging across the Pacific. A tiny bit warmer on Monday from Sunday. The probability of exceedance (PoE)of 95 degrees ranges from 65 to 85 percent in the San Joaquin Valley while the PoE of 100 degrees is less than 15 percent. Tuesday is anticipated to be the warmest day of the week. A ridge is building over the Rockies and trough is digging in the North Pacific. California is in between the two systems with continued weak flow overhead. The PoE of 100 degrees increases to 30 to 60 percent for the San Joaquin Valley up a little from the previous model run increasing confidence. Wednesday through next Sunday a series of upper waves move across the Pacific Northwest and are unable to dig too far down the West Coast. An upper low in the Southern Plains states and an expected tropical system will keep the upper flow blocked for several days. The PoE of normal temperatures, bench marked around 93 degrees, ranges highest on Wednesday with 55 to 90 percent. Thursday is the lowest or coolest day with the PoE of 93 from 15 to 45 percent. Then Friday through next Sunday 35 to 65 percent is the average of PoE of 93. The confidence tool set shows slowly declining confidence in the pattern as we head towards next weekend. The main issue is the downstream impacts to the upper level pattern that could allow for the PacNW troughs to dig down a little more, or keep them held up around the 49th parallel. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 09/21/2024 14:07 EXPIRES: 09/22/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Operations...Proton DSS..........SM weather.gov/hanford