208
FXUS64 KHUN 261536
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A shortwave trough is currently moving through the TN Valley
today. This is expected to promote more unsettled weather compared
to the last few weeks. This shortwave, along with outstanding
boundaries from the MCS to our west, may enhance convection along
any boundary. With this unsettled weather, we are also looking at
a marginal risk of severe weather as well. Model soundings
indicate near dry adiabatic lapse rates by the afternoon once we
break the cap and mix out at the surface. CAPE values around 2000
J/kg should also help the air parcels to become more buoyant once
we get the forcing in place. PoPs are higher to the west as this
is where we have the best mosaic of parameters. This will likely
begin to take place after 18z, especially to the west. With weak
shear, we do not expect organized convection this afternoon. The
main threats from scattered strong to severe storms should mainly
be damaging winds and frequent lightning.

Besides that, high temperatures should reach the mid to upper-90s
closer to KHSV as there is less cloud cover. KMSL should reach
the low to mid-90s before the storms are forecast to move through.
There is some model disagreements with how the dewpoints will mix
throughout the day. However, moisture advection from the
southwest should help to moisten the atmosphere throughout the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convection should gradually wane with the loss of daytime heating
this evening. A mild night is in store with overnight lows only
dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fog may be possible if
there are breaks in the cloud cover, especially in locations that
see some rainfall this afternoon. However, it should be sparse in
coverage.

A relatively "cool" day is forecast on Thursday with afternoon
highs only expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is due
to lingering clouds in the morning and the potential for more
thunderstorms during peak heating hours. After several days in
the upper 90s, this will feel somewhat refreshing. With the
convection being diurnally driven, expect scattered coverage and
for storms to end by the evening.

The upper and mid level ridge begins to shift back east to end the
work week. Southwesterly flow at the sfc will advect in both a
warmer and more moisture rich airmass. As a result, afternoon
highs once again soar into the mid 90s on Friday and the upper 90s
on Saturday. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s,
which would push heat index values above 105 degrees during the
afternoon hours. However, the blended guidance may be a bit too
high with the dewpoints, especially if the area does not see any
appreciable rainfall over the next few days. This will be
something to keep on eye on in future forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through
the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and
the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal
thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get
each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions continue through the morning before chances of
thunderstorms increase from west to east this afternoon. Expect
thunderstorms to remain quite scattered, but if thunderstorms move
over the terminals there will be reductions in both visibilities
and ceilings. Storm coverage should decrease after sunset, but at
the same time some low level stratus moves across northern
Alabama. At this time kept conditions VFR, but some guidance is
suggesting MVFR ceilings.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH