Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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512 FXUS64 KHUN 051659 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Yet another shortwave trough will ripple across the Tennessee Valley today bringing medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms (60-80%) once again. This morning, a few clusters of showers have formed along residual outflow boundaries from convection yesterday. It will be these remnant boundaries that will likely be a focus for convection again later today, especially this afternoon when some mid/upper level support arrives from the shortwave and the amplifying trough. Given the moist environment (PWATs ~ 1.9"), locally heavy rainfall/downpours will be the main impact with this convection in addition to lightning. Poor lapse rates (mid-level values near moist adiabatic) will hinder updrafts, with SBCAPE values being very modest (up to 1000 J/kg). Shear values may be high enough (especially by late this afternoon and evening) to allow for a few multicell clusters in addition to pulse storms, with localized gusty winds being the other threat. Only minor tweaks made to the forecast based on the lastest obs/trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Will maintain 60-80% chances for rain and storms this evening, but they will come to an end from west to east during the morning as a cold front pushes drier air into the area. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s with a low chance for patchy fog if clouds clear the area quicker than currently forecast. Dry and slightly cooler temperatures will follow for the remainder of the short term period as high pressure becomes dominant and the beginning of an extended period of northwest flow aloft begins. Afternoon highs will drop from the mid to upper 80s on Thursday to upper 70s/lower 80s Friday, with lows falling down into the upper 50s in the higher terrain on Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Looks like we will be stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern through the extended forecast. An upper low straddling Ontario and Quebec will be anchored there and a few shortwaves will round the trough providing us chances of rain through Monday. The associated sfc low will have a cold front extending through the OH Valley and back into the Lower MS Valley that will head into the TN Valley and Southeast this weekend. Ahead of these features, cloud cover will increase on Saturday and low chances (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will return. Coverage will increase to ~40% on Sunday as the front draws near. During this time, a lobe of energy will phase with the upper level trough, shifting it eastward. The GFS is the most progressive with this and wants to bring in ridging by Monday. Will wait for better model consensus and instead stick with the NBM on keeping low chance of POPs in through Monday. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front, providing drier conditions and more sunshine on Tuesday. Daytime highs through the extended will be near or slightly below seasonable values, staying in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows on the other hand will remain warm through the weekend and become more seasonable behind the front returning to the lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 SHRA/TSRA will redevelop late in the day into the evening hours as a shortwave trough swings across the region. At times these storms may produce localized MVFR conditions due to reduced visibilities and ceilings. AWWs and amendments may be needed should a storm impact either terminal. Have handled this with TEMPOs and/or PROB30 groups for now. This activity will gradually dissipate from west to east late in the period as they push eastward into Georgia. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...AMP.24