477
FXUS64 KHUN 171718
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 912 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Low chances of rain (20-30%) will continue this morning thanks to
some weak lift and modest mid-level moisture which has also
brought us some broken decks of cloud cover this morning. These
clouds should partially break up by late morning into the early
afternoon, allowing temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower
90s. This should warm the boundary layer enough to generate some
low to medium chances (20-50%) for diurnally driven convection
during the mid/late afternoon into the early evening -- roughly
during the 21-01z window. This activity should wane after the
setting sun, with localized gusty winds being the main impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper ridge pattern will then begin to expand back to the west
starting tonight/Tue. The subtropical ridge at the sfc will also
build into the SE region for the start of the abbreviated work
week. All of this should deflect any upper waves west of the area,
while allowing for drier air between H5/H7 to spread into the SE
region out of the SSE. This should translate into a dry forecast
continuing thru Juneteenth/Wed night. Mid/high level cloud cover
though will prevail thru mid week, due in part to an influx of
moisture above H4 out of the W/SW. This will result in temps both
Tue/Wed trending more seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s/lower
90s. Overnight lows thru Wed night will also fall mainly into the
upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry conditions with very warm to hot conditions are expected to
continue for the remainder of the work week, thanks to strong upper
level ridging situated over the eastern Lower-48. The 500mb depiction
of this ridge has it amplifying to near 600 decameters height values
in the Thursday to early Friday timeframe. The upper ridge should
weaken somewhat as it settles more to the south this weekend, and
then replaced early next week as mean troughing builds in from the
north. While the upper ridge is in place and under partly cloudy
skies, highs on Thu should warm into the lower 90s. As the ridge
heads southward, subsidence under it should help make for more sunny
skies over the Tennessee Valley. More solar insolation should result
in the heat returning, with highs temperatures in the Friday-Sunday
time frame soaring into the mid 90s, with mid/upper 90s on Sat and
especially Sun. Corresponding heat index values in 90s Thu/Fri should
rise to around 100 degrees on Sat, and in the 99-104 degree range
Sun.

The models have backed off of a potential tropical born system moving
over the SE coast Thu/Fri, instead are focusing the deepest tropical
moisture over the Gulf and Caribbean. This moisture should be
directed more to our west, keeping the area rain free for the most
part in the latter half of the week. However, more moisture should
return on Sun, and bring isolated showers/thunderstorm chances to the
area. Rain chances may go up as we go into the next week, as a more
unsettled pattern possibly returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected for KHSV and KMSL through the TAF
period. Scattered to broken clouds should persist with winds
generally out of the southeast at about 5-10 kts. Some light
showers remain possible for KMSL from 18Z through 22Z, and have
added a TEMPO to account for this.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...Serre