608
FXUS64 KHUN 140523
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

No significant changes were needed during the evening update as
high pressure remains dominant and dry conditions continue over
the Tennessee Valley. With clear skies and light winds forecast
overnight, lows will fall to the mid to upper 60s. Some isolated
patchy fog is possible overnight, but dewpoint depressions appear
too large for widespread fog concerns. The best chances for fog
development will be in and near river valleys and over larger
agricultural areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to make its way over
the Southeastern US through Saturday. Model guidance indicates
that a shortwave may progress over the central Plains and into the
Midwest overnight Saturday and on Sunday. Surface high pressure
will persist to start the short term; however, a dry, cold front
looks to approach then move over the Tennessee Valley
Saturday/Saturday night. While no rain or storms are anticipated
with this feature, an ever so slight reduction in Saturday night
lows as well as dew points are possible. Forecast highs Friday and
Saturday afternoons are in the lower to mid 90s, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Some midlevel cumulus are possible during
the day on Friday, but skies are expected to be largely clear
through Saturday night. The only other thing to note is with
elevated moisture, light winds, and mostly clear skies Friday
night, patchy fog development is again possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The center of the subtropical ridge is predicted to begin
shifting slowly northeastward and away from the TN Valley on
Sunday, becoming centered across western portions of VA/NC by
Monday. This (along with a surface ridge migrating eastward off
the coast of New England) will result in a gradual increase in
deep-layer SSE flow and atmospheric moisture content, which should
support a minor increase in the coverage of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms early next week. Although some deterministic and
ensemble guidance indicates that this could occur as early as
Sunday afternoon/evening, it currently appears as if our best
opportunity for rainfall will be Monday afternoon/evening.
Afternoon temperatures will peak in the upper 90s for many
locations on Sunday (with a 100F reading or two possible), but it
still appears as if heat index readings will be slightly below
advisory criteria. Highs are currently expected to be several
degrees cooler on Monday due to clouds and precip, but if this
does not materialize, temps will need to be increased.

During the period from Tuesday-Wednesday, global models suggest
that our deep-layer SSE flow regime will be disrupted by a
developing area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf/Bay of
Campeche, and with more of an influence from the Bermuda ridge to
our east, we expect hot/dry conditions to return. Fortunately, it
appears as if the westward advection of a drier airmass into the
region will limit heat index readings in this regime. Strong
warming of lower-levels from Wednesday onward will likely support
development of afternoon thunderstorms in regions of enhanced
orographic ascent across the central/southern Appalachians on a
daily basis, and with deep easterly flow predicted to the south of
the subtropical high, some of this activity may eventually spill
into northeast AL. However, we have maintained a dry forecast at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

With high pressure layered across much of the SE region, VFR conds
are generally expected thru the TAF period. There is a chc for
some -br early Fri morning although the prob is not high enough to
include in the TAFs attm.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...09