Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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111 FXUS64 KHUN 150450 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Winds over the past few hours have gone calm across many locations in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. This and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop into the 75 to 85 degree range in most locations. An approaching dry front will be the main player in overnight lows tonight. It could bring some partly cloudy skies to the area during the overnight hours especially. Through midnight though, expect mainly clear to mostly clear skies. This and some initially drier air advecting in from the north to northeast through 1 AM, should continue to allow temperatures to drop off into the mid to upper 60s east of the I-65 corridor. With some more prevalent partly cloudy conditions expected overnight and strong moisture advection right ahead of a front moving into southern middle Tennessee or northern Alabama towards daybreak, it will be a muggy start to Saturday with temperatures likely only dropping off into the 70 to 75 degree range west of the I-65 corridor. Further east, temperatures should be able to drop into the mid to upper 60s around midnight (as mentioned earlier) before climbing a bit as the front moves to around the Tennessee River or slightly further north. Winds should pick up then as well to between 5 and 10 mph as the front pushes into the area towards daybreak. Expect some fog to develop, mainly south of the Tennessee River between midnight and 4 AM, before winds near the front likely help to get rid of some patchy/areas of fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A partially closed low will phase with a broad but low-amplitude trough in the west today/tonight. This will lead to downstream ridge development in the OH/TN Valleys through the weekend. This will tend to halt the progression of a southward moving cold front in the OH Valley observed in model analyses and sfc observations. Most of the drier air and lower dew points poleward of the front will likely not tend to make it into our area, except perhaps for far NE portions of the area later Saturday. The upr ridge and developing sfc high will continue to translate eastward to the eastern side of the Appalachians on Sunday. Flow around the sfc high will bring SSE winds and a slight increase in low-lvl moisture into the area on Sunday. This increase may be sufficient, when combined with heating of elevated terrain and along differential heating boundaries, to ignite some isolated showers/thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Sounding thermal/moisture profiles suggest some strong wind potential with high moisture loading (PWs ~1.7 to 1.9 in) and inverted-V low-lvl profiles. Mid-lvl dry could aid local wind development potential, but also serve to inhibit stronger cell growth. So, the threat looks rather minimal at this time, nevertheless worth mentioning here. Otherwise, the main story for the weekend will be the increasingly hot conditions underneath the building upr ridge. Temperature conditions per heat indices and wet-bulb globe temps may be close to heat advisory criteria, especially in/around the HSV and Quad- cities areas on Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Muggy conditions will continue Sunday night with lows only in the low/mid 70s. A deep southerly flow will help return more moisture to the area, with area dewpoints on Monday rising to around 70. This moisture will also result in an increase in cloud cover, which should put a slight damper on very warm to hot conditions that have likely occurred over the weekend. Highs to start the new work week should rise into the lower 90s, with heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. Daytime heating and resultant instability from higher moisture values, will bring lower end (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to the valley Mon afternoon. Strong upper level high pressure over the region will help warm the mid troposphere, which should help reduce rain chances Mon evening. This strong and warm upper ridging is forecast to amplify over the states north and east of here (Mid Atlantic to New England) in the course of the new week. The 500mb reflection of the upper high has maximum height values near the 600 decameter range Wed/Thu from Pennsylvania to New Hampshire. With lower heights more to the south and west, our daily high temperatures for Tue/Wed/Thu should range mainly in the lower 90s, and lows in the lower 70s. Somewhat lower levels of moisture should result in dry conditions for this timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Other than a dry and weak frontal boundary dropping into the area early Sat morning, high pressure to the east should help maintain VFR conds thru the TAF period. Light/var winds are also expected thru the afternoon/evening hrs Sat. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...09