Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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338 FXUS64 KHUN 181656 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 733 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A few very light elevated showers remain across far northwest Alabama this morning which may produce something around a trace of precipitation in a couple spots. Scattered to broken decks of mid/high clouds will continue to filter across the Tennessee Valley today from convection over the ArkLaTex as the region remains in between a strong ridge to the east and a weak trough to the west. Still, enough breaks in the clouds (especially during the afternoon) will allow for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Substance from the ridge to the east will suppress convection in our area this afternoon despite the southerly flow. Only minor tweaks made to the forecast this morning based on current obs/trends as everything remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Dry conditions appear more likely from tonight into the latter half of this abbreviated workweek, as the influence of upper ridging to our NE controls the general weather. With activity in the tropics picking up, a plume of high altitude clouds should remain over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies for the Juneteenth/Wednesday. The clouds and an easterly flow bringing slightly cooler air from the NW Atlantic basin westward, highs Wed should range in the mid 80s to around 90. These clouds should gradually thin, bringing generally sunny skies Thursday. Temperatures should respond with highs warming into the lower 90s. Low temperatures into the later portion of the week should range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A broad upper ridge axis is expected to be draped over the SE region into the southern Atlantic Basin going into the end of the work week. The subtropical high is also expected to be stretching westward into much of the region, essentially deflecting any convection to the north/south of the central TN Valley. This likewise should maintain dry conditions into the upcoming weekend period. The presence of the upper ridge pattern will also translate into seasonably hot temps for the latter half of the forecast period. Afternoon highs look to climb into the lower/mid 90s Fri, before temps rebound more into the mid to perhaps upper 90s Sat/Sun. Dew pts though look to be suppressed to the upper 60s/near 70F. This may at least keep max heat indices this weekend around 98-102F. Nevertheless, those with outdoor activities should exercise caution and stay hydrated. The upper ridge does look to eventually weaken near the end of the period, as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. This looks to bring low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) back into the forecast late Sun into Mon. This may also result in afternoon highs Mon more in the lower/mid 90s. Overnight lows through early Mon look to fall mainly into the mid 70s/near 70F for most spots. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 11:55 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Gusty southeast winds will continue throughout the afternoon until weakening after sunset. A scattered cumulus cloud deck around 5000 feet is expected to form and dissipate after sunset, leaving clear skies and VFR conditions through the end of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...SPG