538
FXUS64 KHUN 280501
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1201 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 828 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Showers have mostly subsided throughout the Tennessee Valley due
to the loss of daytime heating with the exception of a few stray
ones in northwestern AL. A low chance (15% or less) of rain exists
through the next hour before subsiding to less than 5-10%
overnight. With clearing skies accompanying light winds in the
forecast, fog is looking more likely with this evening update. A
low-medium chance (20-50%) of patchy fog exists throughout
portions of the area with higher chances near bodies of water and
in areas that received rainfall this afternoon. Otherwise, low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Southerly flow will return to the area on Friday as broad upper
ridging spreads east from the central Plains. This will lead to
increasing temperatures through the weekend with daily chances for
showers and storms, mainly diurnally driven during peak heating
hours. Shower/storm chances will be highest Saturday afternoon and
evening, ranging from 40-60% along and west of I-65 and topping
out near 70% over northeast AL. Afternoon highs will top out in
the upper 80s/lower 90s through Saturday, and with the increasing
Gulf humidity, some locations could near Heat Advisory criteria on
Saturday. Please remember to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks indoors or in shaded areas if spending time outdoors, as
well as making sure outdoor pets/livestock have adequate heat
protection. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s each
night, offering little relief from the heat. Fog will also be
possible each night, but low confidence due to questions about
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with
temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h
heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be
undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into
the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all
areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will be the main hazards.

As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early
next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into
the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from
the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow
redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back
north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus,
excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is
also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the
upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including
Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential
MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

With mid/high clouds lingering across the area, VFR conds will
prevail well into the daytime hrs Fri. The only exception may be
some -br/MVFR cigs early Fri morning, although the prob is not
high enough to include in the TAFs attm. Sct shra/tsra are then
possible Fri afternoon and a PROB30 group has been maintained
later in the period. Light/var winds will also become SSE around
7-8kt late Fri morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...09