700
FXUS64 KHUN 052147
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
447 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Morning cloud cover has largely dissipated, making for mostly
clear to partly cloudy conditions across the Tennessee Valley this
afternoon. In response, temperatures have warmed into the mid to
upper 80s in most locations as of 1930z, with between 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE developing across the area in a very moist air
mass. This can be seen with PWATs reaching the 1.6-1.8" range,
with dewpoints in the mid 60s.

The main driver of convection this evening will be a shortwave
trough swinging across the Deep South and remnant MCV (from last
night`s convection) over the Mid South all ahead of a southeastward
advancing cold front. This activity will develop to the west over
northern Mississippi and western Tennessee, moving into the
Tennessee Valley during the 00-06z timeframe. Low-level lapse
rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km and effective shear values (though modest)
will support at least a limited threat for a few strong storms
around sunset. However, after sunset, lapse rates will become
close to moist adiabatic, hindering updraft strength in this
activity. Thus, the main threat with convection will be locally
heavy rainfall (given the very moist environment) and frequent
lightning. This activity will continue to push eastward and
gradually taper off and weaken late tonight into early Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Any lingering morning convection will quickly sweep eastward into
Georgia and a drier air mass will sweep into the area in wake of
the cold front that will push into the region on Thursday. Cloud
cover will also dissipate, making for a beautiful afternoon with
plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lower RH
values between 45-55 percent. Thursday evening/night will be quite
comfortable as this drier air mass filters in, with overnight lows
dropping into the lower 60s in most locations underneath a clear
sky. High pressure at the surface on Friday will make for another
beautiful, sunny day as highs will climb into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Looks like we will be stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern
through the extended forecast. An upper low straddling Ontario and
Quebec will be anchored there and a few shortwaves will round the
trough providing us chances of rain through Monday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending through the OH Valley and
back into the Lower MS Valley that will head into the TN Valley and
Southeast this weekend. Ahead of these features, cloud cover will
increase on Saturday and low chances (20-30%) of showers and
thunderstorms will return. Coverage will increase to ~40% on Sunday
as the front draws near. During this time, a lobe of energy will
phase with the upper level trough, shifting it eastward. The GFS is
the most progressive with this and wants to bring in ridging by
Monday. Will wait for better model consensus and instead stick with
the NBM on keeping low chance of POPs in through Monday. Cooler and
drier air will filter in behind the front, providing drier conditions
and more sunshine on Tuesday. Daytime highs through the extended
will be near or slightly below seasonable values, staying in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows on the other hand will remain warm
through the weekend and become more seasonable behind the front
returning to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A band of SHRA and TSRA moving into northwest AL will push east
through the rest of north AL and southern middle TN this evening.
By 03Z, this area should be east of KMSL and KHSV. Low clouds with
ceilings at or below 020agl (MVFR) will overspread the area by
06Z, and lower to below 010agl (IFR) by 09Z. A cold front will
shift winds to the west and northwest Thursday morning by 15-16Z.
Ceilings will lift to 020-030agl (MVFR) for a brief period before
scattering or clearing by 18Z with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17