Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
317 FXUS64 KHUN 061444 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 944 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 944 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A trough at 8h and 5h across AL into southeast LA will shift southeast of the area today. Low clouds will gradually lift and scatter out by midday into early afternoon, so we should have no trouble reaching the middle to upper 80s this afternoon for highs. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to near 70 this afternoon ahead of the cold front which is still in central IL and MO. Thus, another muggy afternoon is anticipated. We will maintain just a very low PoP in our southeast counties through early afternoon, but at this point, confidence in development of showers and thunderstorms is rather low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A drier airmass will begin to filter into the area on Friday, with dew point temperatures likely falling into the 50s. A WNW flow pattern aloft during the weekend will tend to keep temperatures a bit lower than normal with dry conditions expected through Saturday. On Sunday, a longwave upr trough will begin to amplify in the East CONUS, with another cold front moving southward through the Miss/OH/TN Valley regions. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of this front could begin to impact the area as early as Sunday morning. Instability on Sunday could be supportive of some strong updrafts, but shear profiles again do not appear to be overly supportive of strong thunderstorm organization. Most of the activity will probably be concentrated during the morning/afternoon period before the front crosses the area later in the day. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The afore-mentioned cold front will probably move southward through the TN Valley, and perhaps even farther into the Southeast and Gulf Coastal Plain region early next week. This solution is supported generally by the latest 00Z operational guidance suite. However, some of the global ensemble suite is not supportive of this solution and tend to indicate the front may have slower movement through the region, perhaps stalling in the vicinity of the TN Valley. So, slight chance POPs were retained for the period from Monday through Wed next week to account for this uncertainty. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Low stratus clouds with IFR and MVFR bases have developed across the area early this morning and are impacting KHSV and KMSL TAF sites. Eventual dissipation and/or lifting of the cloud bases is expected, but confidence is low in exact timing. The TAF forecasts hedged on the more optimistic side of the estimated timing envelope, around 15-16Z. Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...KDW