Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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057 FXUS63 KICT 190809 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few storms will continue today with some pockets of heavy rain and localized flooding possible. - Above normal temps return for the weekend into next week with some locations getting close to 100. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Storms developed along the cold front late Tue afternoon/evening and with the help of outflow the storms and effective cold front currently stretches from the northern TX Panhandle, into southern KS and to north of Kansas City. The shortwave that allowed the front to push south is currently moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Current thinking is that showers and a few storms will linger this morning across south central and parts of central KS as 850mb flow remains out of the south even north of the surface front. A high PW airmass will also remain in place today, with PW values around 175% of normal. For this morning is looks like the best chance for heavy rainfall and widespread flooding will be southwest of the forecast area of western OK into the TX Panhandle where low level jet will remain more backed resulting in better convergence. However, high rainfall rates will be likely across our area with the more intense activity which may lead to additional localized flooding. We should see a gradual decrease in shower/storm coverage this afternoon as the front starts to wash out and the better isentropic lift shifts north. By Thu morning, upper ridging will extend from the Mid Atlantic States into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, there is good model agreement that some shortwave energy will be coming onshore over central/southern CA with a northern stream impulse tracking east across the Pacific Northwest. For Fri, upper ridging is expected to expand into the Ozark region and lower Mississippi Valley. The Western CONUS upper energy is then expected to quickly track across the Great Basin on Fri night and across the Central Plains. This will allow a weak cold front/surface trough to push south, moving through KS on Sat night into Sun and after today, will bring our next shower/storm chances. However, confidence is low that we will see anything as widespread as we are seeing right now, as the front/trough that moves through will be very progressive. For the the start of the next work week, there is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in upper ridging building from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains and will allow anomalously warm 850mb temps to move-in from the southwest, bringing widespread highs around 100. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Main aviation concern will be showers and storms throughout the day. Storms that developed along the cold front earlier this evening have continued to slowly track southeast overnight and have been maintained by an increasing low level jet. Current thinking is that storms will affect KICT-KHUT for the next few hours with mainly just showers at KGBD-KSLN. Confidence is high that after the more robust convection dissipates in a few hours, we will keep at least some showers and isolated storms around through much of the day as the surface boundary remains in place along with a very moist airmass. In addition, we may see some MVFR cigs develop over central KS this morning, mainly affecting KRSL- KGBD- KSLN. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...RBL