482
FXUS62 KILM 071331
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
931 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will slowly move across the area today and tonight
then off the coast by Saturday with drier air in place across
the region. The chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to increase by mid-week as deeper moisture returns to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
A look at the 13Z surface map suggests the surface front was
positioned west of I-95, roughly along a line from KHVS-KBBP-
KMEB. The front will move to the coast, and precipitable water
will fall off through the day, however there will be enough
low-level moisture and surface-based instability to produce an
isolated shower/tstm along the front and/or sea breeze boundary
by early afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Thunderstorms ahead of and associated with an approaching cold
front will continue early this morning. Lingering instability
and low level moisture advection along the coast will focus the
majority of activity here. The cold front will gradually push
eastward this morning and stall near the coast by midday or
early afternoon. Showers associated with the front are holding
together for now, but expect coverage to struggle as the front
and upper level dry air coalesce this morning.

Latest forecast maintains a chance of showers along and east of
US-17 this afternoon along the front. Dry air aloft should cap
this shallow convection with little to no lightning risk this
afternoon. A secondary push of dry air will move into the area
late this afternoon and into this evening. This will bring a
refreshingly cool evening with dew points falling into the upper
50s and lows in the low and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 ridge is expected to be centered near the central Gulf Coast
during saturday with WNWly mid/upper flow from the Mid-MS Valley
into the Mid Atlantic region. This pattern will direct impulses
toward the area this weekend but time-height cross sections
suggests moisture will be limited in the column. Perhaps by
Sunday evening there will be enough moisture in place for the
return of widely scattered/scattered convection. Saturday high
temperatures will be slightly cooler in the wake of the weak
front, however with return flow becoming re-established during
Sunday high temperatures will rebound into the lower 90s with
increasing humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS ensembles suggest a trough moving from the Mid-MS Valley
early next week moving across the eastern U.S. by mid-week.
Precipitable water will increase as a result, and the
probabilities for greater than a tenth of rainfall increase as
well. Have trended PoPs upward a bit Tuesday into Wednesday as
a result, but much uncertainty remains at this time. The added
cloud cover and convective chances would inhibit high
temperatures during this time as well, with most areas expected
to be in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shallow convection this morning likely to bring brief periods
of MVFR, mainly ILM. VFR inland today. Isolated showers possible
this afternoon along the coast. VFR thereafter.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected on Saturday. Restrictions
possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Breezy this morning ahead of a cold front
with showers and thunderstorms likely through mid and late
morning. As a cold front pushes offshore this afternoon into
this evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms are
likely to develop in the waters 20-40 nm offshore. Activity will
gradually wane late tonight into Saturday morning. South and
southwest winds around 15-20 knots today will become northerly
tonight behind the front. Strong gusts are possible in
thunderstorms, particularly this morning.

Saturday through Wednesday...The earlier weak frontal passage
across the coastal waters will allow winds to veer to a NEly
direction Saturday morning. The NEly winds will be short-lived
as the flow veers back to an onshore direction later in the day.
During Sunday, a SWly fetch will increase ahead of a developing
inland trough. These winds will lead to choppy conditions
through Sunday evening, then the flow will temporarily turn
offshore Sunday night into Monday as the boundary moves off the
coast. Onshore flow is expected to prevail by Tuesday-Wednesday
with lower pressure inland with increasing seas given the fetch.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP