627
FXUS62 KILM 252337
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two
cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and Monday
bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot temperatures
will cool back to normal early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minimal changes were needed with this evening`s update,
primarily focusing in the near term on adjusting hourly
temperatures where convection across South Carolina has occurred
this afternoon. Lingering showers over land should dissipate
over the next two hours with dry conditions expected overnight.

I`ve increased the mention of fog in the forecast after
midnight as light winds, mainly clear skies, and this very humid
airmass combine. Inland areas near I-95 will likely see the
more widespread fog and low clouds at sunrise, but the latest
GFS lamp guidance shows potential extending as far east as
Wilmington and North Myrtle Beach too. Fog and stratus cloud
tops should remain shallow and will burn off quickly Wednesday
morning with no impact on Wednesday`s temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a surface front washed out today, the onshore flow this
morning was enhanced by outflow from offshore convection. The
low-level moisture and outflow have provided more cloud cover
than anticipated. Isolated convection has just formed in the
past hour in southern Georgetown. The convection is expected to
remain isolated through the evening.

Overnight, isolated fog is possible toward sunrise. Wednesday
will be another hot day, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper
90s inland and lower 90s at the coast. The heat indices will
again reach into the lower 100s on Wednesday afternoon and will
be close to heat advisory conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Hot and humid conditions continue, with low temps in the mid
70s and forecasted highs Thursday afternoon in the upper 90s
(away from the coast). Increased variability in the afternoon
temps is likely as lingering front inland, sea breeze, and an
upper shortwave passage combine to bring scattered convection to
the area into the evening hours Thursday. No severe weather
concerns at this time given minimal shear - however slow storm
motions (less than 10 kts) could lead to isolated pockets of
heavy rain accumulations. Depending on cloud and storm coverage,
most areas will likely see heat indices in the triple digits
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Extended period of above normal temperatures and elevated
humidity will continue through Sunday, with heat advisories
possible each day (heat indices >=105F). Diurnal storms possible
Friday and Saturday with afternoon sea breeze and Piedmont
trough, although weak upper ridge nearby and some dry air aloft
will limit coverage both days. An upper trough passing well to
the north Sunday will weaken the ridge, with guidance showing
PWATs increasing to over 2" Sunday into Sunday night. Typical
daytime convection Sunday with continued chances into Monday as
a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Temperatures
may drop to near normal for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A very humid airmass remains in place across the Carolinas with
light onshore winds extending vertically through 4000 feet AGL.
Satellite and surface observations indicate shallow
stratocumulus streaming onshore which should show up as a
scattered 1500-2000 foot cloud deck at KMYR, KCRE, and KILM now
through 03z. There`s a moderate potential this could become a
ceiling at KCRE over the next few hours.

Bigger issues are expected late tonight as there is a moderate
to high potential for fog and low stratus develop after 07-08z
at all local airports except for KMYR. IFR conditions are
expected inland and have at least a moderate potential of
occurring at KCRE and KILM as well. Fog should burn out between
11-13z with VFR conditions expected throughout the day on
Wednesday.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog. Thursday afternoon and evening has the
highest potential for convection affecting local airports.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Over the next 24 hours, we can expect a
shift in wind direction as high pressure attempts to build back
west over the coast waters. The northeast winds this afternoon
will gradually veer to the south by Wednesday. Wind speeds will
maintain a steady 10 knots overnight but will pick up to 10 to
13 knots by Wednesday afternoon. As for the seas, we anticipate
a slow subsiding from 3 to 4 feet to 3 feet by Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Southerly flow around
Bermuda high dominates the coastal waters Wednesday night into
the weekend, with brief backing to southeasterly Saturday. Wind
speeds 10-15 kts Wednesday night and Thursday, with gusts around
20 kts Wed night, lower to around 10 kts Friday and Saturday.
Seas around 3 ft Wed night and Thursday lowers to 2-3 ft Friday
into the weekend, mix of S wind wave and a 2-3 ft 9 sec SE
swell. Best chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters
will come Thursday evening into overnight hours as an upper
level trough moves across the area, with widely scattered
overnight convection every other night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...VAO/RH