Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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328 FXUS62 KILM 260121 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 921 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably hot and humid conditions are expected to continue through Monday with scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms continuing. An approaching cold front should enhance thunderstorm coverage late Monday into Monday night. Cooling trend and mostly dry weather expected Tuesday through late week as front stalls near the coast before high pressure builds in from the west Thursday. && .UPDATE... Convection for the most part winding down this evening, but kept high chance/likely PoPs over a couple areas where thunderstorms remain. Trend towards decreasing coverage will continue over the next few hours, followed by some patchy fog, especially inland, overnight over areas that received rain today. Low temps tonight in the upr 60s to around 70. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our 500 mb heights will rise by almost 40 meters over the next 24 hours as the subtropical ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico expands northeastward. Despite warming and drying observed aloft in model progs, unseasonably warm and humid air at and below 850 mb should still create an unstable and uncapped airmass Sunday afternoon. As much as I want to forecast a dry day, I`m still putting 20-30 percent chances of afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday. Forecast highs range from the mid 80s on the beaches to lower 90s inland with heat indices reaching the upper 90s in spots. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A band of weakening storms are forecasted to move across the area from the west early Sunday night before clearing out. Low temps in the low 70s with lingering boundary layer winds. Warm and humid Memorial Day in store as WAA strengthens ahead of an approaching front. High temps in the low 90s with dewpoints near 70F (much like Sunday). Main uncertainty is chances of daytime showers and thunderstorms. Looks like there may be a window for convection around midday, primarily along sea breeze, before a dry slot looks to move across and a mid-level subsidence inversion develops around 18-21z. PWATs pick up again and inversion dissipates heading into Monday evening as the front moves across the western Carolinas. Best chance for storms Monday look to be Monday evening into overnight hours. Given timing, not sure how much overlap will be left between instability ahead of front and elevated shear along front. Something to keep an eye on over the next two days. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Front expected to be near/along the coast Tuesday morning, where it will stall for a day or two before being pushed offshore as high pressure begins to build across the central US midweek. Quite a bit of dry air inland beginning Tuesday - have kept daytime pops Tuesday limited to slight chance near the coast, and if trends continue even those pops may be removed. While upper trough lingers over the northeastern US through Friday, at the surface a cool, dry high pressure centered over the Great Lakes ridges down into the Carolinas Thursday and Friday. Upper level pattern remains a bit uncertain heading into next weekend - regardless atmosphere looks to be quite dry for a bit. A brief cooling trend in store after an above normal Tuesday, before slowly warming heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, but coverage will continue to slowly decrease as time goes on. Mainly VFR conditions as of 23Z, with MVFR/IFR possible over the next few hours should a storm pass over a TAF site. Otherwise, VFR continues until patchy fog develops early Sunday morning, especially inland, but confidence is not particularly high on this so kept it MVFR for now and will further fine-tune in the next TAF issuance. Sunday similar to today with fairly light winds but rain chances are slightly lower (only 20-30%) so kept any mention of rain out of the TAFs this far out. Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms may be accompanied by periodic short lived IFR conditions Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Low pressure over the central Plains and high pressure well off the East Coast are providing the Carolinas with a light southwest synoptic wind around 5 knots. Afternoon seabreeze tomorrow will accelerate winds near the beach as high as 10-15 knots. Outside of thunderstorms, seas should average only 1-2 feet in height through Sunday, split between a 9 second southeast swell plus local wind waves. Sunday Night through Thursday...South-southwest winds around 10 kts Sunday night will be increasing during the day Monday as a front approaches from the west. Winds peak around 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts late Monday afternoon/evening. In turn seas increase from 2-3 ft Sunday night to around 4 feet Monday evening with the building south wind wave. Chance for thunderstorms over the waters Monday night ahead of an along the front. Front expected to stall near the coast Monday night into Tuesday morning, and linger there through Wednesday before being pushed further off the coast as high pressure begins to build inland. Winds generally around 10 kts or less Tuesday and Wednesday, alternating between southwesterly and northwesterly, with seas around 2-3 ft. Winds turn northerly on Thursday with the building high pressure inland. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...MAS MARINE...TRA/VAO